Statistical Approach to Quantifying the Destructive Impact of Natural Disasters on Petroleum Infrastructures

Abstract

The U.S. petroleum industry is significantly dependent on petroleum infrastructures located in the hurricane-prone Gulf of Mexico. Natural disasters such as Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike have been serious shocks to the U.S. energy supply and energy security. The significant impact of natural disasters on the performance of the petroleum industry emphasizes the importance of analyzing the resilience of petroleum infrastructures against natural disasters. Quantifying the destructive impact of extreme events is the first step toward analyzing the resilience of infrastructure systems. However, currently available hurricane-intensity scales, such as the Saffir–Simpson classification, cannot reflect the impact of hurricanes on critical infrastructures, and there is little knowledge about measuring the magnitude of natural disasters in terms of their destructive impact on petroleum systems. This gap in knowledge makes it difficult to properly quantify the effect of natural disasters, compare the disasters in terms of their destructive impact on petroleum processes, and analyze the resilience of petroleum infrastructures. The objective of this study was to develop a systematic approach to statistically quantify the destructive effect of natural disasters on petroleum infrastructures. A system-monitoring process using cumulative sum control charts combined with time-series analysis was conducted on the historical performance records of the three major components of the petroleum industry (i.e., crude oil production, import of petroleum materials, and oil refining processes) to measure the recovery period after a disaster. The reduction in the average performance of the petroleum process during the recovery period then was estimated. The primary contribution of this study to the existing body of knowledge is its development of well-defined metrics and a systematic approach to quantify the destructive impacts of natural disasters on petroleum infrastructures. The results of this study can help decision makers and the construction management community learn more about vulnerabilities in the infrastructure systems during different natural disasters and, consequently, develop different engineering management strategies to address these issues.