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    Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2017:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 016::page 6521
    Author:
    Nigam, Sumant;Thomas, Natalie P.;Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo;Weaver, Scott J.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0757.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractThe linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)?a key secular warming signal?exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change?s Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal.The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface?hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.
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      Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

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    contributor authorNigam, Sumant;Thomas, Natalie P.;Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo;Weaver, Scott J.
    date accessioned2018-01-03T11:01:15Z
    date available2018-01-03T11:01:15Z
    date copyright4/12/2017 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2017
    identifier otherjcli-d-16-0757.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://138.201.223.254:8080/yetl1/handle/yetl/4246130
    description abstractAbstractThe linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)?a key secular warming signal?exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change?s Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal.The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface?hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleStriking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume30
    journal issue16
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0757.1
    journal fristpage6521
    journal lastpage6541
    treeJournal of Climate:;2017:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 016
    contenttypeFulltext
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