Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS)

Abstract

AbstractIn global warming experiments, the majority of global climate models warm faster in the eastern equatorial Pacific than in the west and produce a weakening of the Walker circulation. In contrast, GFDL-ESM2M is an exception that exhibits a La Niña?like mean-state warming with a strengthening of the Walker circulation. This study explores the cause of this exceptional response and proposes a new mechanism, the nonlinear ENSO warming suppression (NEWS), where the transient heating rate difference between the atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs annihilates extreme El Niños, causing a suppression of mean-state warming in the east. Heat budget analyses of GFDL-ESM2M robustly show that nonlinear dynamical heating, which is necessary for extremely warm El Niños, becomes negligible under warming. An idealized nonlinear recharge oscillator model suggests that, if the temperature difference between the atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs becomes larger than some threshold value, the upwelling becomes too efficient for El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to retain its nonlinearity. Therefore, extreme El Niños dissipate but La Niñas remain almost unchanged, causing a La Niña?like mean-state warming. NEWS is consistent with observations and GFDL-ESM2M but not with the majority of state-of-the-art models, which lack realistic ENSO nonlinearity. NEWS and its opposite response to atmospheric cooling, the nonlinear ENSO cooling suppression (NECS), might contribute to the Pacific multidecadal natural variability and global warming hiatuses.