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    The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2017:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 008::page 2739
    Author:
    Liu, Maofeng;Vecchi, Gabriel A.;Smith, James A.;Murakami, Hiroyuki
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0352.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractThis study explores the simulations and twenty-first-century projections of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic, with a newly developed global climate model: the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.5 (CM2.5). FLOR exhibits good skill in simulating present-day ET properties (e.g., cyclone phase space parameters). A version of FLOR in which sea surface temperature (SST) biases are artificially corrected through flux-adjustment (FLOR-FA) shows much improved simulation of ET activity (e.g., annual ET number). This result is largely attributable to better simulation of basinwide TC activity, which is strongly dependent on larger-scale climate simulation. FLOR-FA is also used to explore changes of ET activity in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. A contrasting pattern is found in which regional TC density increases in the eastern North Atlantic and decreases in the western North Atlantic, probably due to changes in the TC genesis location. The increasing TC frequency in the eastern Atlantic is dominated by increased ET cases. The increased density of TCs undergoing ET in the eastern subtropics of the Atlantic shows two propagation paths: one moves northwest toward the northeast coast of the United States and the other moves northeast toward western Europe, implying increased TC-related risks in these regions. A more TC-favorable future climate, evident in the projected changes of SST and vertical wind shear, is hypothesized to favor the increased ET occurrence in the eastern North Atlantic.
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      The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic

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    contributor authorLiu, Maofeng;Vecchi, Gabriel A.;Smith, James A.;Murakami, Hiroyuki
    date accessioned2018-01-03T11:00:30Z
    date available2018-01-03T11:00:30Z
    date copyright2/10/2017 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2017
    identifier otherjcli-d-16-0352.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://138.201.223.254:8080/yetl1/handle/yetl/4245959
    description abstractAbstractThis study explores the simulations and twenty-first-century projections of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic, with a newly developed global climate model: the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.5 (CM2.5). FLOR exhibits good skill in simulating present-day ET properties (e.g., cyclone phase space parameters). A version of FLOR in which sea surface temperature (SST) biases are artificially corrected through flux-adjustment (FLOR-FA) shows much improved simulation of ET activity (e.g., annual ET number). This result is largely attributable to better simulation of basinwide TC activity, which is strongly dependent on larger-scale climate simulation. FLOR-FA is also used to explore changes of ET activity in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. A contrasting pattern is found in which regional TC density increases in the eastern North Atlantic and decreases in the western North Atlantic, probably due to changes in the TC genesis location. The increasing TC frequency in the eastern Atlantic is dominated by increased ET cases. The increased density of TCs undergoing ET in the eastern subtropics of the Atlantic shows two propagation paths: one moves northwest toward the northeast coast of the United States and the other moves northeast toward western Europe, implying increased TC-related risks in these regions. A more TC-favorable future climate, evident in the projected changes of SST and vertical wind shear, is hypothesized to favor the increased ET occurrence in the eastern North Atlantic.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleThe Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume30
    journal issue8
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0352.1
    journal fristpage2739
    journal lastpage2756
    treeJournal of Climate:;2017:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 008
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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