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    Narrowing the Range of Future Climate Projections Using Historical Observations of Atmospheric CO2

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2016:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 008::page 3039
    Author:
    Booth, Ben B. B.;Harris, Glen R.;Murphy, James M.;House, Jo I.;Jones, Chris D.;Sexton, David;Sitch, Stephen
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0178.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractUncertainty in the behavior of the carbon cycle is important in driving the range in future projected climate change. Previous comparisons of model responses with historical CO2 observations have suggested a strong constraint on simulated projections that could narrow the range considered plausible. This study uses a new 57-member perturbed parameter ensemble of variants of an Earth system model for three future scenarios, which 1) explores a wider range of potential climate responses than before and 2) includes the impact of past uncertainty in carbon emissions on simulated trends. These two factors represent a more complete exploration of uncertainty, although they lead to a weaker constraint on the range of future CO2 concentrations as compared to earlier studies. Nevertheless, CO2 observations are shown to be effective at narrowing the distribution, excluding 30 of 57 simulations as inconsistent with historical CO2 changes. The perturbed model variants excluded are mainly at the high end of the future projected CO2 changes, with only 8 of the 26 variants projecting RCP8.5 2100 concentrations in excess of 1100 ppm retained. Interestingly, a minority of the high-end variants were able to capture historical CO2 trends, with the large-magnitude response emerging later in the century (owing to high climate sensitivities, strong carbon feedbacks, or both). Comparison with observed CO2 is effective at narrowing both the range and distribution of projections out to the mid-twenty-first century for all scenarios and to 2100 for a scenario with low emissions.
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      Narrowing the Range of Future Climate Projections Using Historical Observations of Atmospheric CO2

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    contributor authorBooth, Ben B. B.;Harris, Glen R.;Murphy, James M.;House, Jo I.;Jones, Chris D.;Sexton, David;Sitch, Stephen
    date accessioned2018-01-03T11:00:16Z
    date available2018-01-03T11:00:16Z
    date copyright12/13/2016 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2016
    identifier otherjcli-d-16-0178.1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://138.201.223.254:8080/yetl1/handle/yetl/4245917
    description abstractAbstractUncertainty in the behavior of the carbon cycle is important in driving the range in future projected climate change. Previous comparisons of model responses with historical CO2 observations have suggested a strong constraint on simulated projections that could narrow the range considered plausible. This study uses a new 57-member perturbed parameter ensemble of variants of an Earth system model for three future scenarios, which 1) explores a wider range of potential climate responses than before and 2) includes the impact of past uncertainty in carbon emissions on simulated trends. These two factors represent a more complete exploration of uncertainty, although they lead to a weaker constraint on the range of future CO2 concentrations as compared to earlier studies. Nevertheless, CO2 observations are shown to be effective at narrowing the distribution, excluding 30 of 57 simulations as inconsistent with historical CO2 changes. The perturbed model variants excluded are mainly at the high end of the future projected CO2 changes, with only 8 of the 26 variants projecting RCP8.5 2100 concentrations in excess of 1100 ppm retained. Interestingly, a minority of the high-end variants were able to capture historical CO2 trends, with the large-magnitude response emerging later in the century (owing to high climate sensitivities, strong carbon feedbacks, or both). Comparison with observed CO2 is effective at narrowing both the range and distribution of projections out to the mid-twenty-first century for all scenarios and to 2100 for a scenario with low emissions.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleNarrowing the Range of Future Climate Projections Using Historical Observations of Atmospheric CO2
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume30
    journal issue8
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0178.1
    journal fristpage3039
    journal lastpage3053
    treeJournal of Climate:;2016:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 008
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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