Probabilistic Investigation and Risk Assessment of Debris Transport in Extreme Hydrodynamic Conditions

Abstract

Recent extreme hydrodynamic events, such as the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2005 Hurricane Katrina, and 2013 Typhoon Haiyan, have indicated the vulnerability of coastal communities. As a result, emphasis has been placed on understanding and developing methods of assessing the potential loads associated with these extreme events. The majority of research has focused on assessing the risk of hydrodynamic loads; however, little research has gone into assessing the potential for debris loading. The following study aimed to address the trajectory of debris within extreme hydrodynamic conditions to aid in the assessment of risk for debris loading. Laboratory experiments were performed using a dam-break wave as the hydrodynamic forcing condition. The trajectory and velocity of the debris were examined to determine the statistical characteristics of the debris motion. The study showed that the lateral displacement of the debris can be evaluated using a normal distribution, and the velocity of the debris can be conservatively modeled as the wave front velocity.