Impact of Characteristics of Infrastructure Projects on Public Opinion

Abstract

Infrastructure projects are developed at the interface of coupled technical and social systems. As a result, there is a symbiotic relationship between the social dynamics and technical characteristics of the projects. For example, projects with robust technical designs and plans still face fragilities in the form of social dynamics, such as public opposition. In this study, the impact of the technical system on the social dynamics of a project is evaluated while focusing on the case of nuclear power plant construction. The technical system is defined by the characteristics of the project, and the social dynamics are gauged in terms of the probability of public opposition. The study consists of three components: (1) identification of project characteristics, (2) public perception survey, and (3) quantifying the impact of project characteristics on the probability of opposition. The analysis included the estimation of six logit models, one for each project characteristic. A probit model was also developed to study the binary choice of opposing/supporting projects across 10 countries/regions. The results suggest project characteristics, such as reactor size, experience of the developer, and source of funding as significant factors in shaping public opinion. Knowledge of the past rejection of similar projects and lack of safety awareness contributed to increased probability of social opposition, whereas knowledge of project benefits reduced its probability. Project developers can use the results of the analysis to tailor project characteristics during planning stages to address risks associated with the social dynamics.