Causes of Construction Delays in Countries with High Geopolitical Risks

Abstract

International construction contractors are increasingly expanding their business into emerging markets that are often characterized by high geopolitical risk. Working in these regions poses unique challenges that lead to unconventional causes for construction delay. As such, this research aims to (1) develop a better understanding of the causes of delays that may be encountered in countries with high geopolitical risks, (2) gauge the relative impact these delay causes are expected to have on project completion, and (3) capture how delay causes are influenced by project and country characteristics. Research findings are based on two distinct data sources: quantitative and qualitative data. First, a window delay analysis is conducted of six project schedules and narratives with extensive quantitative data informed of the probability and impact of various delay causes in countries with high geopolitical risks. This quantitative source was then complemented with qualitative data based on interviewing 18 experts who were involved in 36 projects, which spanned 16 countries with high geopolitical risks. Results of the quantitative and qualitative data analysis were merged to create an integrated delay cause database. This merging helps to leverage the advantages of both approaches, i.e., accuracy of data and breadth of coverage, and enables construction companies to better anticipate the future causes of delay on their international construction projects. For an upcoming project in a country with high geopolitical risk, the database can be used to suggest or predict the most likely causes of delay based on matching the similarity (location and project type) with existing cases. Comparison of results with the literature on construction delay causes in developing countries suggests that there are several delay causes that are unique, and also substantial, in countries with high geopolitical risks. The benefits of this research are broad. The capacity to predict delay causes in future projects in which geopolitical risks are detectable can result in (1) the development of more effective risk response plans, (2) more reliable estimation of contingencies, and (3) establishment of more efficient project control procedures.