Interactive Fuzzy-Boundary Interval Programming for Water Resources Management of the Hetao Basin, China

Abstract

In this study, an interactive fuzzy-boundary interval programming (IFBIP) method is developed to plan water resources management under uncertain conditions. IFBIP is capable of addressing dual uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-boundary intervals, as well as analyzing the reliability of satisfying (or the risk of violating) various constraints. The IFBIP method is then applied to the water resources management of the Hetao Basin (located in Inner Mongolia, China), one of the largest irrigation areas and the main food-producing region in the Yellow River Basin, where water scarcity is a major constraint for socioeconomic development. Results of water-allocation pattern and system benefit have been obtained under different feasibility degrees. Results reveal that agricultural irrigation is still the largest water consumer, compared with the other users such as industry, municipality, and livestock; meanwhile, irrigation water in each subarea is mainly from the Yellow River over the planning horizon. Moreover, water-saving technology and irrigation regime are relative backward, leading to more inefficient water usage. The findings can facilitate local managers in generating desired decisions of water-related activities with maximized system benefit and minimized water shortage.