Assessing Climate Change Impact on System Reliability of Power Distribution Systems Subjected to Hurricanes

Abstract

Damage to power distribution systems due to hurricanes is likely to increase due to a possible increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones caused by climate change. This will exacerbate the already high cost incurred by utility companies and communities due to damage to distribution systems by hurricanes. Consequently, long-term investment in critical civil infrastructure systems, such as distribution systems, requires long-term planning that incorporates the potential impact of climate change. This can only be achieved through a comprehensive risk analysis framework for evaluating the impact of climate change and studying the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies. This paper presents a framework for incorporating the potential impact of climate change in the reliability analysis of power distribution systems subject to hurricane hazards. The framework incorporates a time-dependent hurricane hazard model, time-dependent fragility model, system reliability evaluation, and a life cycle cost analysis for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of various climate change adaptation strategies. A notional power distribution system located in the hurricane-prone state of Florida is used to demonstrate the proposed framework.