Tropical Cyclone Movement Forecasts Based on Observations from Satellites

Abstract

A method to predict 24 h movement of tropical cyclones using consecutive daily satellite views is described. The method is based on the observation that changes in the location of major structural features of the storm are correlated with changes in the direction of movement of the storm centers. Major structural features appear to retain the same relative location with respect to the direction of movement of the storm center. The rotation of features noted in comparing satellite views over a 24 h period is frequently found to approximate in sense and value the further deflection the storm will take in its track during the following 24 h. A test evaluation of the method was conducted by seven individuals using 31 separate data sets of satellite data. For the purposes of the test only direction of movement forecasts were made and storm center displacement was neglected. The results on a post-analysis, non-real-time, basis compared favorably with official 24 h forecasts.