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    The Value of Air Quality Forecasting in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Source: Weather, Climate, and Society:;2011:;volume( 004 ):;issue: 001::page 69
    Author:
    Garner, Gregory G.
    ,
    Thompson, Anne M.
    DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-10-05010.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: ir quality forecasts produced by the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), human air quality forecasters, and persistence are evaluated for predictive skill and economic value when used to inform decisions regarding pollutant emission and exposure. Surface ozone forecasts and observations were collected from 40 monitors representing eight forecast regions throughout Washington, D.C.; Virginia; and Maryland over the 2005?09 ozone seasons (April?October). The skill of the forecasts are quantified using discrete statistics, such as correlation, mean bias, and root-mean-square error, and categorical statistics, such as exceedance hit rate, false alarm rate, and critical success index. The value of the forecasts are quantified using a decision model based on costs to protect the public against a poor air quality event and the losses incurred if no protective measures are taken. The results indicate that the most skillful forecast method is not necessarily the most valuable forecast method. Air shed managers need to consider multiple forecast methods when deciding on multiple protective measures, because a single measure of forecast skill can often hide the user?s sensitivity to forecast error for a specific decision.
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      The Value of Air Quality Forecasting in the Mid-Atlantic Region

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4232083
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    contributor authorGarner, Gregory G.
    contributor authorThompson, Anne M.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:37:41Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:37:41Z
    date copyright2012/01/01
    date issued2011
    identifier issn1948-8327
    identifier otherams-88316.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4232083
    description abstractir quality forecasts produced by the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), human air quality forecasters, and persistence are evaluated for predictive skill and economic value when used to inform decisions regarding pollutant emission and exposure. Surface ozone forecasts and observations were collected from 40 monitors representing eight forecast regions throughout Washington, D.C.; Virginia; and Maryland over the 2005?09 ozone seasons (April?October). The skill of the forecasts are quantified using discrete statistics, such as correlation, mean bias, and root-mean-square error, and categorical statistics, such as exceedance hit rate, false alarm rate, and critical success index. The value of the forecasts are quantified using a decision model based on costs to protect the public against a poor air quality event and the losses incurred if no protective measures are taken. The results indicate that the most skillful forecast method is not necessarily the most valuable forecast method. Air shed managers need to consider multiple forecast methods when deciding on multiple protective measures, because a single measure of forecast skill can often hide the user?s sensitivity to forecast error for a specific decision.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleThe Value of Air Quality Forecasting in the Mid-Atlantic Region
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume4
    journal issue1
    journal titleWeather, Climate, and Society
    identifier doi10.1175/WCAS-D-10-05010.1
    journal fristpage69
    journal lastpage79
    treeWeather, Climate, and Society:;2011:;volume( 004 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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