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    Ensemble Prediction with Different Spatial Resolutions for the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games: The Effects of Calibration and Multimodel Approaches

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2016:;volume( 031 ):;issue: 006::page 1833
    Author:
    Frogner, Inger-Lise
    ,
    Nipen, Thomas
    ,
    Singleton, Andrew
    ,
    Bremnes, John Bjørnar
    ,
    Vignes, Ole
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0048.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: hree ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with different grid spacings are compared and evaluated with respect to their ability to predict wintertime weather in complex terrain. The experiment period was two-and-a-half winter months in 2014, coinciding with the Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed (FROST) project, which took place during the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia. The global, synoptic-scale ensemble system used is the IFS ENS from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and its performance is compared with both the operational pan-European Grand Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (GLAMEPS) at 11-km horizontal resolution and the experimental regional convection-permitting HIRLAM?ALADIN Regional Mesoscale Operational NWP in Europe (HARMONIE) EPS (HarmonEPS) at 2.5 km. Both GLAMEPS and HarmonEPS are multimodel systems, and it is seen that a large part of the skill in these systems comes from the multimodel approach, as long as all subensembles are performing reasonably. The number of members has less impact on the overall skill measurement. The relative importance of resolution and calibration is also assessed. Statistical calibration was applied and evaluated. In contrast to what is seen for the raw ensembles, the number of members, as well as the number of subensembles, is important for the calibrated ensembles. HarmonEPS shows greater potential than GLAMEPS for predicting wintertime weather, and also has an advantage after calibration.
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      Ensemble Prediction with Different Spatial Resolutions for the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games: The Effects of Calibration and Multimodel Approaches

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4231996
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    contributor authorFrogner, Inger-Lise
    contributor authorNipen, Thomas
    contributor authorSingleton, Andrew
    contributor authorBremnes, John Bjørnar
    contributor authorVignes, Ole
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:37:23Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:37:23Z
    date copyright2016/12/01
    date issued2016
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-88238.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231996
    description abstracthree ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with different grid spacings are compared and evaluated with respect to their ability to predict wintertime weather in complex terrain. The experiment period was two-and-a-half winter months in 2014, coinciding with the Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed (FROST) project, which took place during the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia. The global, synoptic-scale ensemble system used is the IFS ENS from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and its performance is compared with both the operational pan-European Grand Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (GLAMEPS) at 11-km horizontal resolution and the experimental regional convection-permitting HIRLAM?ALADIN Regional Mesoscale Operational NWP in Europe (HARMONIE) EPS (HarmonEPS) at 2.5 km. Both GLAMEPS and HarmonEPS are multimodel systems, and it is seen that a large part of the skill in these systems comes from the multimodel approach, as long as all subensembles are performing reasonably. The number of members has less impact on the overall skill measurement. The relative importance of resolution and calibration is also assessed. Statistical calibration was applied and evaluated. In contrast to what is seen for the raw ensembles, the number of members, as well as the number of subensembles, is important for the calibrated ensembles. HarmonEPS shows greater potential than GLAMEPS for predicting wintertime weather, and also has an advantage after calibration.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleEnsemble Prediction with Different Spatial Resolutions for the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games: The Effects of Calibration and Multimodel Approaches
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume31
    journal issue6
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-16-0048.1
    journal fristpage1833
    journal lastpage1851
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2016:;volume( 031 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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