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    Evaluation and Error Analysis of Official Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2005–14 over the Western North Pacific. Part I: Storm Tracks

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2017:;volume( 032 ):;issue: 002::page 689
    Author:
    Peng, Xudong
    ,
    Fei, Jianfang
    ,
    Huang, Xiaogang
    ,
    Cheng, Xiaoping
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0043.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: fficial forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks issued by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA); the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in Tokyo, Japan; and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) were used to evaluate the accuracies, biases, and trends of TC track forecasts during 2005?14 over the western North Pacific. Overall, the JTWC demonstrated the best forecasting performance. However, the CMA showed the most significant rate of improvement. Two main zones were discovered in the regional distribution of forecast errors: a low-latitude zone that comprises the South China Sea and the sea region east of the Philippines, and a midlatitude zone comprising the southern Sea of Japan and the sea region east of Japan. When TCs moved into the former zone, there were both translational speed and direction biases in the forecast tracks, whereas slow biases were predominated in the latter zone. Twelve synoptic flow patterns of TCs with the largest error have been identified based on the steering flow theory. Among them, the most two common pattern are the pattern with the combination of cyclonic circulations, subtropical ridges, and midlatitude troughs (CRT, 26 TCs), and the pattern of the TCs? track that cannot be explained by steering flow (NSF, 6 TCs). In the CRT pattern, TCs move northwestward forced by the cyclonic circulations and the subtropical ridges and then turn poleward and eastward under the influence of the midlatitude troughs. In the NSF pattern, storms embedded in the southwest flow by the cyclonic circulation and the steering flow suggest TCs should turn to the right and move northeastward but instead TCs persisted in moving northwestward.
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      Evaluation and Error Analysis of Official Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2005–14 over the Western North Pacific. Part I: Storm Tracks

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4231993
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    contributor authorPeng, Xudong
    contributor authorFei, Jianfang
    contributor authorHuang, Xiaogang
    contributor authorCheng, Xiaoping
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:37:23Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:37:23Z
    date copyright2017/04/01
    date issued2017
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-88235.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231993
    description abstractfficial forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks issued by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA); the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in Tokyo, Japan; and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) were used to evaluate the accuracies, biases, and trends of TC track forecasts during 2005?14 over the western North Pacific. Overall, the JTWC demonstrated the best forecasting performance. However, the CMA showed the most significant rate of improvement. Two main zones were discovered in the regional distribution of forecast errors: a low-latitude zone that comprises the South China Sea and the sea region east of the Philippines, and a midlatitude zone comprising the southern Sea of Japan and the sea region east of Japan. When TCs moved into the former zone, there were both translational speed and direction biases in the forecast tracks, whereas slow biases were predominated in the latter zone. Twelve synoptic flow patterns of TCs with the largest error have been identified based on the steering flow theory. Among them, the most two common pattern are the pattern with the combination of cyclonic circulations, subtropical ridges, and midlatitude troughs (CRT, 26 TCs), and the pattern of the TCs? track that cannot be explained by steering flow (NSF, 6 TCs). In the CRT pattern, TCs move northwestward forced by the cyclonic circulations and the subtropical ridges and then turn poleward and eastward under the influence of the midlatitude troughs. In the NSF pattern, storms embedded in the southwest flow by the cyclonic circulation and the steering flow suggest TCs should turn to the right and move northeastward but instead TCs persisted in moving northwestward.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleEvaluation and Error Analysis of Official Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2005–14 over the Western North Pacific. Part I: Storm Tracks
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume32
    journal issue2
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-16-0043.1
    journal fristpage689
    journal lastpage712
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2017:;volume( 032 ):;issue: 002
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian