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    Application of Two Spatial Verification Methods to Ensemble Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2016:;volume( 031 ):;issue: 003::page 713
    Author:
    Skinner, Patrick S.
    ,
    Wicker, Louis J.
    ,
    Wheatley, Dustan M.
    ,
    Knopfmeier, Kent H.
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-15-0129.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: wo spatial verification methods are applied to ensemble forecasts of low-level rotation in supercells: a four-dimensional, object-based matching algorithm and the displacement and amplitude score (DAS) based on optical flow. Ensemble forecasts of low-level rotation produced using the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System are verified against WSR-88D single-Doppler azimuthal wind shear values interpolated to the model grid. Verification techniques are demonstrated using four 60-min forecasts issued at 15-min intervals in the hour preceding development of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, tornado and compared to results from two additional forecasts of tornadic supercells occurring during the springs of 2013 and 2014.The object-based verification technique and displacement component of DAS are found to reproduce subjectively determined forecast characteristics in successive forecasts for the 20 May 2013 event, as well as to discriminate in subjective forecast quality between different events. Ensemble-mean, object-based measures quantify spatial and temporal displacement, as well as storm motion biases in predicted low-level rotation in a manner consistent with subjective interpretation. Neither method produces useful measures of the intensity of low-level rotation, owing to deficiencies in the verification dataset and forecast resolution.
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      Application of Two Spatial Verification Methods to Ensemble Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4231934
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    contributor authorSkinner, Patrick S.
    contributor authorWicker, Louis J.
    contributor authorWheatley, Dustan M.
    contributor authorKnopfmeier, Kent H.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:37:13Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:37:13Z
    date copyright2016/06/01
    date issued2016
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-88182.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231934
    description abstractwo spatial verification methods are applied to ensemble forecasts of low-level rotation in supercells: a four-dimensional, object-based matching algorithm and the displacement and amplitude score (DAS) based on optical flow. Ensemble forecasts of low-level rotation produced using the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System are verified against WSR-88D single-Doppler azimuthal wind shear values interpolated to the model grid. Verification techniques are demonstrated using four 60-min forecasts issued at 15-min intervals in the hour preceding development of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, tornado and compared to results from two additional forecasts of tornadic supercells occurring during the springs of 2013 and 2014.The object-based verification technique and displacement component of DAS are found to reproduce subjectively determined forecast characteristics in successive forecasts for the 20 May 2013 event, as well as to discriminate in subjective forecast quality between different events. Ensemble-mean, object-based measures quantify spatial and temporal displacement, as well as storm motion biases in predicted low-level rotation in a manner consistent with subjective interpretation. Neither method produces useful measures of the intensity of low-level rotation, owing to deficiencies in the verification dataset and forecast resolution.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleApplication of Two Spatial Verification Methods to Ensemble Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume31
    journal issue3
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-15-0129.1
    journal fristpage713
    journal lastpage735
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2016:;volume( 031 ):;issue: 003
    contenttypeFulltext
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