YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Weather and Forecasting
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Weather and Forecasting
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    A Consensus Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2015:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 005::page 1397
    Author:
    Sampson, Charles R.
    ,
    Knaff, John A.
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-15-0009.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been forecasting gale force wind radii for many years, and more recently (starting in 2004) began routine postanalysis or ?best tracking? of the maximum radial extent of gale [34 knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.514 m s?1)] force winds in compass quadrants surrounding the tropical cyclone (wind radii). At approximately the same time, a statistical wind radii forecast, based solely on climatology and persistence, was implemented so that wind radii forecasts could be evaluated for skill. If the best-track gale radii are used as ground truth (even accounting for random errors in the analyses), the skill of the NHC forecasts appears to be improving at 2- and 3-day lead times, suggesting that the guidance has also improved. In this paper several NWP models are evaluated for their skill, an equally weighted average or ?consensus? of the model forecasts is constructed, and finally the consensus skill is evaluated. The results are similar to what is found with tropical cyclone track and intensity in that the consensus skill is comparable to or better than that of the individual models. Furthermore, the consensus skill is high enough to be of potential use as forecast guidance or as a proxy for official gale force wind radii forecasts at the longer lead times.
    • Download: (1.278Mb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      A Consensus Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4231854
    Collections
    • Weather and Forecasting

    Show full item record

    contributor authorSampson, Charles R.
    contributor authorKnaff, John A.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:36:55Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:36:55Z
    date copyright2015/10/01
    date issued2015
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-88110.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231854
    description abstracthe National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been forecasting gale force wind radii for many years, and more recently (starting in 2004) began routine postanalysis or ?best tracking? of the maximum radial extent of gale [34 knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.514 m s?1)] force winds in compass quadrants surrounding the tropical cyclone (wind radii). At approximately the same time, a statistical wind radii forecast, based solely on climatology and persistence, was implemented so that wind radii forecasts could be evaluated for skill. If the best-track gale radii are used as ground truth (even accounting for random errors in the analyses), the skill of the NHC forecasts appears to be improving at 2- and 3-day lead times, suggesting that the guidance has also improved. In this paper several NWP models are evaluated for their skill, an equally weighted average or ?consensus? of the model forecasts is constructed, and finally the consensus skill is evaluated. The results are similar to what is found with tropical cyclone track and intensity in that the consensus skill is comparable to or better than that of the individual models. Furthermore, the consensus skill is high enough to be of potential use as forecast guidance or as a proxy for official gale force wind radii forecasts at the longer lead times.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleA Consensus Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume30
    journal issue5
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-15-0009.1
    journal fristpage1397
    journal lastpage1403
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2015:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian