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    Forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin Using the NCEP Operational HWRF: Real-Time Implementation in 2012

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2015:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 005::page 1355
    Author:
    Tallapragada, Vijay
    ,
    Kieu, Chanh
    ,
    Trahan, Samuel
    ,
    Zhang, Zhan
    ,
    Liu, Qingfu
    ,
    Wang, Weiguo
    ,
    Tong, Mingjing
    ,
    Zhang, Banglin
    ,
    Strahl, Brian
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00138.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: his study documents the recent efforts of the hurricane modeling team at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?s (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) in implementing the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) for real-time tropical cyclone (TC) forecast guidance in the western North Pacific basin (WPAC) from May to December 2012 in support of the operational forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Evaluation of model performance for the WPAC in 2012 reveals that the model has promising skill with the 3-, 4-, and 5-day track errors being 125, 220, and 290 nautical miles (n mi; 1 n mi = 1.852 km), respectively. Intensity forecasts also show good performance, with the most significant intensity error reduction achieved during the first 24 h. Stratification of the track and intensity forecast errors based on storm initial intensity reveals that HWRF tends to underestimate storm intensity for weak storms and overestimate storm intensity for strong storms. Further analysis of the horizontal distribution of track and intensity forecast errors over the WPAC suggests that HWRF possesses a systematic negative intensity bias, slower movement, and a rightward bias in the lower latitudes. At higher latitudes near the East China Sea, HWRF shows a positive intensity bias and faster storm movement. This appears to be related to underestimation of the dominant large-scale system associated with the western Pacific subtropical high, which renders weaker steering flows in this basin.
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      Forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin Using the NCEP Operational HWRF: Real-Time Implementation in 2012

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4231828
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    contributor authorTallapragada, Vijay
    contributor authorKieu, Chanh
    contributor authorTrahan, Samuel
    contributor authorZhang, Zhan
    contributor authorLiu, Qingfu
    contributor authorWang, Weiguo
    contributor authorTong, Mingjing
    contributor authorZhang, Banglin
    contributor authorStrahl, Brian
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:36:50Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:36:50Z
    date copyright2015/10/01
    date issued2015
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-88087.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231828
    description abstracthis study documents the recent efforts of the hurricane modeling team at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?s (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) in implementing the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) for real-time tropical cyclone (TC) forecast guidance in the western North Pacific basin (WPAC) from May to December 2012 in support of the operational forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Evaluation of model performance for the WPAC in 2012 reveals that the model has promising skill with the 3-, 4-, and 5-day track errors being 125, 220, and 290 nautical miles (n mi; 1 n mi = 1.852 km), respectively. Intensity forecasts also show good performance, with the most significant intensity error reduction achieved during the first 24 h. Stratification of the track and intensity forecast errors based on storm initial intensity reveals that HWRF tends to underestimate storm intensity for weak storms and overestimate storm intensity for strong storms. Further analysis of the horizontal distribution of track and intensity forecast errors over the WPAC suggests that HWRF possesses a systematic negative intensity bias, slower movement, and a rightward bias in the lower latitudes. At higher latitudes near the East China Sea, HWRF shows a positive intensity bias and faster storm movement. This appears to be related to underestimation of the dominant large-scale system associated with the western Pacific subtropical high, which renders weaker steering flows in this basin.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleForecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin Using the NCEP Operational HWRF: Real-Time Implementation in 2012
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume30
    journal issue5
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-14-00138.1
    journal fristpage1355
    journal lastpage1373
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2015:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian