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    An Observational Study of the Effects of Dry Air Produced in Dissipating Convective Storms on the Predictability of Severe Weather

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2014:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 001::page 79
    Author:
    Bluestein, Howard B.
    ,
    Snyder, Jeffrey C.
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00065.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: his paper documents features that led to major forecast errors on the 12?24-h time scale in the nature and location of severe weather in the southern plains on 30 May 2012. Evidence is presented that the forecast errors were the result of 1) dry air that originated in a region of dissipating, elevated convective storms, and which was advected in a narrow tongue into western Oklahoma, inhibiting convective initiation; 2) the development of a cyclone along the dryline in western Texas, to the east of which several supercells formed; 3) the upscale development of the supercells into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) at nightfall; and 4) the dissipation of an MCS that had formed along a cold front in southwestern Kansas and was propagating into northwestern Oklahoma, as it encountered dry, subsiding air underneath the stratiform precipitation region of the rear portion of the MCS farther south. There was a meridionally oriented swath of high winds in clear air, in between the two MCSs. This swath of high winds may have been associated with a bore triggered at night by the MCSs approaching from the north, as the MCS collapsed, producing a gust front that propagated through stable, low-level air. This case study illustrates how the predictability of severe weather in a region can be extremely sensitive to the details of where nearby convective storms form and how they evolve. It also highlights the likely importance of the accurate representation of cloud microphysics and dynamics in numerical forecast models on predictability.
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      An Observational Study of the Effects of Dry Air Produced in Dissipating Convective Storms on the Predictability of Severe Weather

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4231786
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    contributor authorBluestein, Howard B.
    contributor authorSnyder, Jeffrey C.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:36:42Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:36:42Z
    date copyright2015/02/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-88049.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231786
    description abstracthis paper documents features that led to major forecast errors on the 12?24-h time scale in the nature and location of severe weather in the southern plains on 30 May 2012. Evidence is presented that the forecast errors were the result of 1) dry air that originated in a region of dissipating, elevated convective storms, and which was advected in a narrow tongue into western Oklahoma, inhibiting convective initiation; 2) the development of a cyclone along the dryline in western Texas, to the east of which several supercells formed; 3) the upscale development of the supercells into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) at nightfall; and 4) the dissipation of an MCS that had formed along a cold front in southwestern Kansas and was propagating into northwestern Oklahoma, as it encountered dry, subsiding air underneath the stratiform precipitation region of the rear portion of the MCS farther south. There was a meridionally oriented swath of high winds in clear air, in between the two MCSs. This swath of high winds may have been associated with a bore triggered at night by the MCSs approaching from the north, as the MCS collapsed, producing a gust front that propagated through stable, low-level air. This case study illustrates how the predictability of severe weather in a region can be extremely sensitive to the details of where nearby convective storms form and how they evolve. It also highlights the likely importance of the accurate representation of cloud microphysics and dynamics in numerical forecast models on predictability.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAn Observational Study of the Effects of Dry Air Produced in Dissipating Convective Storms on the Predictability of Severe Weather
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume30
    journal issue1
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-14-00065.1
    journal fristpage79
    journal lastpage114
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2014:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian