Dynamical Prediction of the Early Season Rainfall over Southern China by the NCEP Climate Forecast SystemSource: Weather and Forecasting:;2014:;volume( 029 ):;issue: 006::page 1391DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00012.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and various observational datasets are analyzed to assess the predictability of the ESR and associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that CFSv2 can successfully predict the ESR and associated circulation patterns over southern China. The lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence as well as the local upward motion over southern China lead to the formation of ESR. Analysis of bias shows small differences and close relationships between the predicted and observed ESR values when the forecast lead time is less than 2 weeks. The skill in the ESR predictions by CFSv2 decreases significantly when the lead time is longer than 2 weeks. Overall, CFSv2 has a higher level of skill when predicting the southern China ESR compared to the rainfall over other Asian regions during the same period of time.
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contributor author | Zhao, Siyu | |
contributor author | Yang, Song | |
date accessioned | 2017-06-09T17:36:35Z | |
date available | 2017-06-09T17:36:35Z | |
date copyright | 2014/12/01 | |
date issued | 2014 | |
identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
identifier other | ams-88018.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231752 | |
description abstract | he early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and various observational datasets are analyzed to assess the predictability of the ESR and associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that CFSv2 can successfully predict the ESR and associated circulation patterns over southern China. The lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence as well as the local upward motion over southern China lead to the formation of ESR. Analysis of bias shows small differences and close relationships between the predicted and observed ESR values when the forecast lead time is less than 2 weeks. The skill in the ESR predictions by CFSv2 decreases significantly when the lead time is longer than 2 weeks. Overall, CFSv2 has a higher level of skill when predicting the southern China ESR compared to the rainfall over other Asian regions during the same period of time. | |
publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
title | Dynamical Prediction of the Early Season Rainfall over Southern China by the NCEP Climate Forecast System | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 29 | |
journal issue | 6 | |
journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
identifier doi | 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00012.1 | |
journal fristpage | 1391 | |
journal lastpage | 1401 | |
tree | Weather and Forecasting:;2014:;volume( 029 ):;issue: 006 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |