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    Dynamical Prediction of the Early Season Rainfall over Southern China by the NCEP Climate Forecast System

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2014:;volume( 029 ):;issue: 006::page 1391
    Author:
    Zhao, Siyu
    ,
    Yang, Song
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00012.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and various observational datasets are analyzed to assess the predictability of the ESR and associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that CFSv2 can successfully predict the ESR and associated circulation patterns over southern China. The lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence as well as the local upward motion over southern China lead to the formation of ESR. Analysis of bias shows small differences and close relationships between the predicted and observed ESR values when the forecast lead time is less than 2 weeks. The skill in the ESR predictions by CFSv2 decreases significantly when the lead time is longer than 2 weeks. Overall, CFSv2 has a higher level of skill when predicting the southern China ESR compared to the rainfall over other Asian regions during the same period of time.
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      Dynamical Prediction of the Early Season Rainfall over Southern China by the NCEP Climate Forecast System

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4231752
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    contributor authorZhao, Siyu
    contributor authorYang, Song
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:36:35Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:36:35Z
    date copyright2014/12/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-88018.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231752
    description abstracthe early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and various observational datasets are analyzed to assess the predictability of the ESR and associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that CFSv2 can successfully predict the ESR and associated circulation patterns over southern China. The lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence as well as the local upward motion over southern China lead to the formation of ESR. Analysis of bias shows small differences and close relationships between the predicted and observed ESR values when the forecast lead time is less than 2 weeks. The skill in the ESR predictions by CFSv2 decreases significantly when the lead time is longer than 2 weeks. Overall, CFSv2 has a higher level of skill when predicting the southern China ESR compared to the rainfall over other Asian regions during the same period of time.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleDynamical Prediction of the Early Season Rainfall over Southern China by the NCEP Climate Forecast System
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume29
    journal issue6
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-14-00012.1
    journal fristpage1391
    journal lastpage1401
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2014:;volume( 029 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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