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    An Examination of Wind Decay, Sustained Wind Speed Forecasts, and Gust Factors for Recent Tropical Cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2014:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 001::page 153
    Author:
    Tyner, Bryce
    ,
    Aiyyer, Anantha
    ,
    Blaes, Jonathan
    ,
    Hawkins, Donald Reid
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00125.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: n this study, several analyses were conducted that were aimed at improving sustained wind speed and gust forecasts for tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting coastal regions. An objective wind speed forecast analysis of recent TCs affecting the mid-Atlantic region was first conducted to set a benchmark for improvement. Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database were compared to observations and surface wind analyses in the region. The analysis suggests a general overprediction of sustained wind speeds, especially for areas affected by the strongest winds. Currently, National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices use a software tool known as the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM) wind tool (TCMWindTool) to develop their wind forecast grids. The tool assumes linear decay in the sustained wind speeds when interpolating the National Hurricane Center 12?24-hourly TCM product to hourly grids. An analysis of postlandfall wind decay for recent TCs was conducted to evaluate this assumption. Results indicate that large errors in the forecasted wind speeds can emerge, especially for stronger storms. Finally, an analysis of gust factors for recent TCs affecting the region was conducted. Gust factors associated with weak sustained wind speeds are shown to be highly variable but average around 1.5. The gust factors decrease to values around 1.2 for wind speeds above 40 knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s?1) and are in general insensitive to the wind direction, suggesting local rather than upstream surface roughness largely dictates the gust factor at a given location. Forecasters are encouraged to increase land reduction factors used in the TCMWindTool and to modify gust factors to account for factors including the sustained wind speed and local surface roughness.
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      An Examination of Wind Decay, Sustained Wind Speed Forecasts, and Gust Factors for Recent Tropical Cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4231724
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    • Weather and Forecasting

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    contributor authorTyner, Bryce
    contributor authorAiyyer, Anantha
    contributor authorBlaes, Jonathan
    contributor authorHawkins, Donald Reid
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:36:30Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:36:30Z
    date copyright2015/02/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-87994.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231724
    description abstractn this study, several analyses were conducted that were aimed at improving sustained wind speed and gust forecasts for tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting coastal regions. An objective wind speed forecast analysis of recent TCs affecting the mid-Atlantic region was first conducted to set a benchmark for improvement. Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database were compared to observations and surface wind analyses in the region. The analysis suggests a general overprediction of sustained wind speeds, especially for areas affected by the strongest winds. Currently, National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices use a software tool known as the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM) wind tool (TCMWindTool) to develop their wind forecast grids. The tool assumes linear decay in the sustained wind speeds when interpolating the National Hurricane Center 12?24-hourly TCM product to hourly grids. An analysis of postlandfall wind decay for recent TCs was conducted to evaluate this assumption. Results indicate that large errors in the forecasted wind speeds can emerge, especially for stronger storms. Finally, an analysis of gust factors for recent TCs affecting the region was conducted. Gust factors associated with weak sustained wind speeds are shown to be highly variable but average around 1.5. The gust factors decrease to values around 1.2 for wind speeds above 40 knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s?1) and are in general insensitive to the wind direction, suggesting local rather than upstream surface roughness largely dictates the gust factor at a given location. Forecasters are encouraged to increase land reduction factors used in the TCMWindTool and to modify gust factors to account for factors including the sustained wind speed and local surface roughness.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAn Examination of Wind Decay, Sustained Wind Speed Forecasts, and Gust Factors for Recent Tropical Cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume30
    journal issue1
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-13-00125.1
    journal fristpage153
    journal lastpage176
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2014:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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