Climatology and Ingredients of Significant Severe Convection in High-Shear, Low-CAPE Environments

Abstract

igh-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments, here characterized by surface-based CAPE ≤ 500 J kg?1, most unstable parcel CAPE ≤ 1000 J kg?1, and 0?6-km shear vector magnitude ≥ 18 m s?1, occur at all times of day, across all seasons, and throughout the entire United States. HSLC environments represent a unique challenge for forecasters, as they occur frequently but produce severe weather a relatively low percentage of the time. Recent studies have primarily focused on improving nowcasting and warnings for events through the identification of radar signatures commonly associated with HSLC tornadoes. Few studies have investigated the forecasting of HSLC severe weather, despite the acknowledged poor performance of traditional tools and techniques. A general climatology of HSLC significant severe weather is presented, focusing on regional, diurnal, and annual trends. Through this climatology, it becomes apparent that multiple types of HSLC environments are possible, including surface-based cases with low lifted condensation levels and high-based convection cases. A statistical analysis of HSLC events and nulls from the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states is utilized to assess the performance of conventional composite parameters in HSLC environments. Additionally, a new composite parameter is introduced that utilizes the product of the statistically most skillful parameters in HSLC environments: the 0?3-km lapse rate, the 700?500-hPa lapse rate, and multiple wind and shear metrics. The strengths and weaknesses of these ingredients-based techniques are then reviewed, with an eye toward improving future HSLC severe weather forecasts.