Exploring Impacts of Rapid-Scan Radar Data on NWS Warning DecisionsSource: Weather and Forecasting:;2012:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 004::page 1031DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00145.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: apid-scan weather radars, such as the S-band phased array radar at the National Weather Radar Testbed in Norman, Oklahoma, improve precision in the depiction of severe storm processes. To explore potential impacts of such data on forecaster warning decision making, 12 National Weather Service forecasters participated in a preliminary study with two control conditions: 1) when radar scan time was similar to volume coverage pattern 12 (4.5 min) and 2) when radar scan time was faster (43 s). Under these control conditions, forecasters were paired and worked a tropical tornadic supercell case. Their decision processes were observed and audio was recorded, interactions with data displays were video recorded, and the products were archived. A debriefing was conducted with each of the six teams independently and jointly, to ascertain the forecaster decision-making process. Analysis of these data revealed that teams examining the same data sometimes came to different conclusions about whether and when to warn. Six factors contributing toward these differences were identified: 1) experience, 2) conceptual models, 3) confidence, 4) tolerance of possibly missing a tornado occurrence, 5) perceived threats, and 6) software issues. The three 43-s teams issued six warnings: three verified, two did not verify, and one event was missed. Warning lead times were the following: tornado, 18.6 and 11.5 min, and severe, 6 min. The three tornado warnings issued by the three 4.5-min teams verified, though warning lead times were shorter: 4.6 and 0 min (two teams). In this case, use of rapid-scan data showed the potential to extend warning lead time and improve forecasters? confidence, compared to standard operations.
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contributor author | Heinselman, Pamela L. | |
contributor author | LaDue, Daphne S. | |
contributor author | Lazrus, Heather | |
date accessioned | 2017-06-09T17:35:53Z | |
date available | 2017-06-09T17:35:53Z | |
date copyright | 2012/08/01 | |
date issued | 2012 | |
identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
identifier other | ams-87827.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231539 | |
description abstract | apid-scan weather radars, such as the S-band phased array radar at the National Weather Radar Testbed in Norman, Oklahoma, improve precision in the depiction of severe storm processes. To explore potential impacts of such data on forecaster warning decision making, 12 National Weather Service forecasters participated in a preliminary study with two control conditions: 1) when radar scan time was similar to volume coverage pattern 12 (4.5 min) and 2) when radar scan time was faster (43 s). Under these control conditions, forecasters were paired and worked a tropical tornadic supercell case. Their decision processes were observed and audio was recorded, interactions with data displays were video recorded, and the products were archived. A debriefing was conducted with each of the six teams independently and jointly, to ascertain the forecaster decision-making process. Analysis of these data revealed that teams examining the same data sometimes came to different conclusions about whether and when to warn. Six factors contributing toward these differences were identified: 1) experience, 2) conceptual models, 3) confidence, 4) tolerance of possibly missing a tornado occurrence, 5) perceived threats, and 6) software issues. The three 43-s teams issued six warnings: three verified, two did not verify, and one event was missed. Warning lead times were the following: tornado, 18.6 and 11.5 min, and severe, 6 min. The three tornado warnings issued by the three 4.5-min teams verified, though warning lead times were shorter: 4.6 and 0 min (two teams). In this case, use of rapid-scan data showed the potential to extend warning lead time and improve forecasters? confidence, compared to standard operations. | |
publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
title | Exploring Impacts of Rapid-Scan Radar Data on NWS Warning Decisions | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 27 | |
journal issue | 4 | |
journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
identifier doi | 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00145.1 | |
journal fristpage | 1031 | |
journal lastpage | 1044 | |
tree | Weather and Forecasting:;2012:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 004 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |