Verification of Surface Temperature Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database over the Western United States

Abstract

Experimental gridded forecasts of surface temperature issued by National Weather Service offices in the western United States during the 2003/04 winter season (18 November 2003?29 February 2004) are evaluated relative to surface observations and gridded analyses. The 5-km horizontal resolution gridded forecasts issued at 0000 UTC for forecast lead times at 12-h intervals from 12 to 168 h were obtained from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Forecast accuracy and skill are determined relative to observations at over 3000 locations archived by MesoWest. Forecast quality is also determined relative to Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses at 20-km resolution that are interpolated to the 5-km NDFD grid as well as objective analyses obtained from the Advanced Regional Prediction System Data Assimilation System that rely upon the MesoWest observations and RUC analyses. For the West as a whole, the experimental temperature forecasts issued at 0000 UTC during the 2003/04 winter season exhibit skill at lead times of 12, 24, 36, and 48 h on the basis of several verification approaches. Subgrid-scale temperature variations and observational and analysis errors undoubtedly contribute some uncertainty regarding these results. Even though the ?true? values appropriate to evaluate the forecast values on the NDFD grid are unknown, it is estimated that the root-mean-square errors of the NDFD temperature forecasts are on the order of 3°C at lead times shorter than 48 h and greater than 4°C at lead times longer than 120 h. However, such estimates are derived from only a small fraction of the NDFD grid boxes. Incremental improvements in forecast accuracy as a result of forecaster adjustments to the 0000 UTC temperature grids from 144- to 24-h lead times are estimated to be on the order of 13%.