Comparing Probabilistic Forecasting Systems with the Brier ScoreSource: Weather and Forecasting:;2007:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 005::page 1076Author:Ferro, Christopher A. T.
DOI: 10.1175/WAF1034.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This article considers the Brier score for verifying ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts of binary events. New estimators for the effect of ensemble size on the expected Brier score, and associated confidence intervals, are proposed. An example with precipitation forecasts illustrates how these estimates support comparisons of the performances of competing forecasting systems with possibly different ensemble sizes.
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| contributor author | Ferro, Christopher A. T. | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T17:34:50Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T17:34:50Z | |
| date copyright | 2007/10/01 | |
| date issued | 2007 | |
| identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
| identifier other | ams-87499.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231174 | |
| description abstract | This article considers the Brier score for verifying ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts of binary events. New estimators for the effect of ensemble size on the expected Brier score, and associated confidence intervals, are proposed. An example with precipitation forecasts illustrates how these estimates support comparisons of the performances of competing forecasting systems with possibly different ensemble sizes. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | Comparing Probabilistic Forecasting Systems with the Brier Score | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 22 | |
| journal issue | 5 | |
| journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/WAF1034.1 | |
| journal fristpage | 1076 | |
| journal lastpage | 1088 | |
| tree | Weather and Forecasting:;2007:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 005 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext |