Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and PersistenceSource: Weather and Forecasting:;2007:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 004::page 781Author:Knaff, John A.
,
Sampson, Charles R.
,
DeMaria, Mark
,
Marchok, Timothy P.
,
Gross, James M.
,
McAdie, Colin J.
DOI: 10.1175/WAF1026.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An operational model used to predict tropical cyclone wind structure in terms of significant wind radii (i.e., 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii, where 1 kt = 0.52 m s?1) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Department of Defense/Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is described. The statistical-parametric model employs aspects of climatology and persistence to forecast tropical cyclone wind radii through 5 days. Separate versions of the model are created for the Atlantic, east Pacific, and western North Pacific by statistically fitting a modified Rankine vortex, which is generalized to allow wavenumber-1 asymmetries, to observed values of tropical cyclone wind radii as reported by NHC and JTWC. Descriptions of the developmental data and methods used to formulate the model are given. A 2-yr verification and comparison with operational forecasts and an independently developed wind radii forecast method that also employs climatology and persistence suggests that the statistical-parametric model does a good job of forecasting wind radii. The statistical-parametric model also provides reliable operational forecasts that serve as a baseline for evaluating the skill of operational forecasts and other wind radii forecast methods in these tropical cyclone basins.
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contributor author | Knaff, John A. | |
contributor author | Sampson, Charles R. | |
contributor author | DeMaria, Mark | |
contributor author | Marchok, Timothy P. | |
contributor author | Gross, James M. | |
contributor author | McAdie, Colin J. | |
date accessioned | 2017-06-09T17:34:49Z | |
date available | 2017-06-09T17:34:49Z | |
date copyright | 2007/08/01 | |
date issued | 2007 | |
identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
identifier other | ams-87491.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231165 | |
description abstract | An operational model used to predict tropical cyclone wind structure in terms of significant wind radii (i.e., 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii, where 1 kt = 0.52 m s?1) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Department of Defense/Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is described. The statistical-parametric model employs aspects of climatology and persistence to forecast tropical cyclone wind radii through 5 days. Separate versions of the model are created for the Atlantic, east Pacific, and western North Pacific by statistically fitting a modified Rankine vortex, which is generalized to allow wavenumber-1 asymmetries, to observed values of tropical cyclone wind radii as reported by NHC and JTWC. Descriptions of the developmental data and methods used to formulate the model are given. A 2-yr verification and comparison with operational forecasts and an independently developed wind radii forecast method that also employs climatology and persistence suggests that the statistical-parametric model does a good job of forecasting wind radii. The statistical-parametric model also provides reliable operational forecasts that serve as a baseline for evaluating the skill of operational forecasts and other wind radii forecast methods in these tropical cyclone basins. | |
publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
title | Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and Persistence | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 22 | |
journal issue | 4 | |
journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
identifier doi | 10.1175/WAF1026.1 | |
journal fristpage | 781 | |
journal lastpage | 791 | |
tree | Weather and Forecasting:;2007:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 004 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |