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    Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and Persistence

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2007:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 004::page 781
    Author:
    Knaff, John A.
    ,
    Sampson, Charles R.
    ,
    DeMaria, Mark
    ,
    Marchok, Timothy P.
    ,
    Gross, James M.
    ,
    McAdie, Colin J.
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF1026.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: An operational model used to predict tropical cyclone wind structure in terms of significant wind radii (i.e., 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii, where 1 kt = 0.52 m s?1) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Department of Defense/Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is described. The statistical-parametric model employs aspects of climatology and persistence to forecast tropical cyclone wind radii through 5 days. Separate versions of the model are created for the Atlantic, east Pacific, and western North Pacific by statistically fitting a modified Rankine vortex, which is generalized to allow wavenumber-1 asymmetries, to observed values of tropical cyclone wind radii as reported by NHC and JTWC. Descriptions of the developmental data and methods used to formulate the model are given. A 2-yr verification and comparison with operational forecasts and an independently developed wind radii forecast method that also employs climatology and persistence suggests that the statistical-parametric model does a good job of forecasting wind radii. The statistical-parametric model also provides reliable operational forecasts that serve as a baseline for evaluating the skill of operational forecasts and other wind radii forecast methods in these tropical cyclone basins.
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      Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and Persistence

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4231165
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    • Weather and Forecasting

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    contributor authorKnaff, John A.
    contributor authorSampson, Charles R.
    contributor authorDeMaria, Mark
    contributor authorMarchok, Timothy P.
    contributor authorGross, James M.
    contributor authorMcAdie, Colin J.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:34:49Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:34:49Z
    date copyright2007/08/01
    date issued2007
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-87491.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231165
    description abstractAn operational model used to predict tropical cyclone wind structure in terms of significant wind radii (i.e., 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii, where 1 kt = 0.52 m s?1) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Department of Defense/Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is described. The statistical-parametric model employs aspects of climatology and persistence to forecast tropical cyclone wind radii through 5 days. Separate versions of the model are created for the Atlantic, east Pacific, and western North Pacific by statistically fitting a modified Rankine vortex, which is generalized to allow wavenumber-1 asymmetries, to observed values of tropical cyclone wind radii as reported by NHC and JTWC. Descriptions of the developmental data and methods used to formulate the model are given. A 2-yr verification and comparison with operational forecasts and an independently developed wind radii forecast method that also employs climatology and persistence suggests that the statistical-parametric model does a good job of forecasting wind radii. The statistical-parametric model also provides reliable operational forecasts that serve as a baseline for evaluating the skill of operational forecasts and other wind radii forecast methods in these tropical cyclone basins.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleStatistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and Persistence
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume22
    journal issue4
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/WAF1026.1
    journal fristpage781
    journal lastpage791
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2007:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 004
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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