The US National Blend of Models Statistical Post-Processing of Probability of Precipitation and Deterministic Precipitation Amount

Abstract

he US National Blend of Models provides statistically post-processed, high-resolution multi-model ensemble guidance, providing National Weather Service forecasters with a calibrated, downscaled starting point for producing digital forecasts.Forecasts of 12-hourly probability of precipitation (POP12) over the contiguous US are produced as follows: (1) Populate the forecast and analyzed cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) to be used later in quantile mapping. Were every grid point processed without benefit of data from other points, 60 days of training data would likely be insufficient for estimating CDFs and adjusting the errors in the forecast. Accordingly, ?supplemental? locations were identified for each grid point, and data from the supplemental locations were used to populate the forecast and analyzed CDFs used in the quantile mapping. (2) Load the real-time US and Environment Canada global deterministic and ensemble forecasts, interpolated to ?-degree. (3) Using CDFs from the past 60 days of data, apply a deterministic quantile mapping to the ensemble forecasts. (4) Dress the resulting ensemble with random noise. (5) Generate probabilities from the ensemble relative frequency. (6) Spatially smooth the forecast using a Savitzky-Golay smoother, applying more smoothing in flatter areas.Forecasts of 6-hourly quantitative precipitation (QPF06) are more simply produced as follows: (1) Form a grand ensemble mean, again interpolated to ?-degree. (2) Quantile map the mean forecast using CDFs of the ensemble mean and analyzed distributions. (3) Spatially smooth the field, similar to POP12.Results for spring 2016 are provided demonstrating that the post-processing improves POP12 reliability and skill, as well as the deterministic forecast bias, while maintaining sharpness and spatial detail.