Amplification of the Downstream Wave Train during Extratropical Transition: Sensitivity Studies

Abstract

tropical cyclone (TC) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) may support the amplification of a Rossby wave train in the downstream midlatitudes. Within the context of downstream baroclinic development, the TC acts as an additional source of eddy kinetic energy . Previous studies concluded that the impact depends, in particular, on the phasing between the TC and the midlatitude flow and the continuation of the generation during ET. These studies did not quantify the impact of ET on the within a downstream Rossby wave train.The present study uses ensemble sensitivity analysis to examine the sensitivity of downstream Rossby wave train amplification to the budget of the transitioning TC and of the upstream midlatitude features for Typhoon Choi-Wan (2009) and Hurricane Hanna (2008) in ECMWF ensemble forecasts. The amplification of the downstream wave train is measured using the amplitude of its associated maxima. The sensitivity of the maximum?s intensity at a particular forecast time to the budget terms of the TC and the upstream midlatitudes at earlier forecast times is determined. The results show that increasing the budget terms within Choi-Wan (Hanna) by one standard deviation can result in an up to 36% (23%) more intense downstream maximum. This is favored by the phasing between Choi-Wan and the midlatitude trough, and the reintensification of Hanna, respectively. By contrast, weaker contributions to downstream Rossby wave amplification arise from budget terms associated with flow features in the upstream midlatitudes.