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    A Study of Multiscale Initial Condition Perturbation Methods for Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2016:;volume( 144 ):;issue: 007::page 2579
    Author:
    Johnson, Aaron
    ,
    Wang, Xuguang
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0056.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he impacts of multiscale flow-dependent initial condition (IC) perturbations for storm-scale ensemble forecasts of midlatitude convection are investigated using perfect-model observing system simulation experiments. Several diverse cases are used to quantitatively and qualitatively understand the impacts of different IC perturbations on ensemble forecast skill. Scale dependence of the results is assessed by evaluating 2-h storm-scale reflectivity forecasts separately from hourly accumulated mesoscale precipitation forecasts.Forecasts are initialized with different IC ensembles, including an ensemble of multiscale perturbations produced by a multiscale data assimilation system, mesoscale perturbations produced at a coarser resolution, and filtered multiscale perturbations. Mesoscale precipitation forecasts initialized with the multiscale perturbations are more skillful than the forecasts initialized with the mesoscale perturbations at several lead times. This multiscale advantage is due to greater consistency between the IC perturbations and IC uncertainty. This advantage also affects the short-term, smaller-scale forecasts. Reflectivity forecasts on very small scales and very short lead times are more skillful with the multiscale perturbations as a direct result of the smaller-scale IC perturbation energy. The small-scale IC perturbations also contribute to some improvements to the mesoscale precipitation forecasts after the ~5-h lead time. Altogether, these results suggest that the multiscale IC perturbations provided by ensemble data assimilation on the convection-permitting grid can improve storm-scale ensemble forecasts by improving the sampling of IC uncertainty, compared to downscaling of IC perturbations from a coarser-resolution ensemble.
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      A Study of Multiscale Initial Condition Perturbation Methods for Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts

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    contributor authorJohnson, Aaron
    contributor authorWang, Xuguang
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:33:54Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:33:54Z
    date copyright2016/07/01
    date issued2016
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-87281.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4230932
    description abstracthe impacts of multiscale flow-dependent initial condition (IC) perturbations for storm-scale ensemble forecasts of midlatitude convection are investigated using perfect-model observing system simulation experiments. Several diverse cases are used to quantitatively and qualitatively understand the impacts of different IC perturbations on ensemble forecast skill. Scale dependence of the results is assessed by evaluating 2-h storm-scale reflectivity forecasts separately from hourly accumulated mesoscale precipitation forecasts.Forecasts are initialized with different IC ensembles, including an ensemble of multiscale perturbations produced by a multiscale data assimilation system, mesoscale perturbations produced at a coarser resolution, and filtered multiscale perturbations. Mesoscale precipitation forecasts initialized with the multiscale perturbations are more skillful than the forecasts initialized with the mesoscale perturbations at several lead times. This multiscale advantage is due to greater consistency between the IC perturbations and IC uncertainty. This advantage also affects the short-term, smaller-scale forecasts. Reflectivity forecasts on very small scales and very short lead times are more skillful with the multiscale perturbations as a direct result of the smaller-scale IC perturbation energy. The small-scale IC perturbations also contribute to some improvements to the mesoscale precipitation forecasts after the ~5-h lead time. Altogether, these results suggest that the multiscale IC perturbations provided by ensemble data assimilation on the convection-permitting grid can improve storm-scale ensemble forecasts by improving the sampling of IC uncertainty, compared to downscaling of IC perturbations from a coarser-resolution ensemble.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleA Study of Multiscale Initial Condition Perturbation Methods for Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume144
    journal issue7
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/MWR-D-16-0056.1
    journal fristpage2579
    journal lastpage2604
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2016:;volume( 144 ):;issue: 007
    contenttypeFulltext
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