The Mississippi Valley Convection Minimum on Summer Afternoons: Observations and Numerical Simulations

Abstract

nalysis of 15 years of composite radar images over the continental United States reveals a distinct minimum of deep-convection occurrence over the interior lower Mississippi Valley on summer afternoons, relative to surrounding areas. To understand the mechanisms behind this convection signature, quasi-idealized numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are performed. The simulations, which broadly reproduce the valley convection minimum, suggest that convective inhibition is maximized, and low-level ascent minimized, over the flat valley terrain. By contrast, weaker inhibition and stronger mechanically forced ascent over the hills flanking the valley combine to initiate convection more readily. Although the orography of the region is unremarkable, it has a stronger influence on the regional convection pattern than do variations in land use.