YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Monthly Weather Review
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Monthly Weather Review
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in Response to the MJO in NOAA’s CFS Model

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2015:;volume( 143 ):;issue: 012::page 4905
    Author:
    Barnston, Anthony G.
    ,
    Vigaud, Nicolas
    ,
    Long, Lindsey N.
    ,
    Tippett, Michael K.
    ,
    Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0127.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) is known to exert some control on the variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity within a hurricane season. To explore the possibility of better TC predictions based on improved MJO forecasts, retrospective hindcast data on MJO and on TC activity are examined both in the current operational version of the CFSv2 model (T126 horizontal resolution) and a high-resolution (T382) experimental version of CFS. Goals are to determine how well each CFS version reproduces reality in 1) predicting MJO and 2) reproducing observed relationships between MJO phase and TC activity. For the operational CFSv2, skill of forecasts of TC activity is evaluated directly.Both CFS versions reproduce MJO behavior realistically and also roughly approximate observed relationships between MJO phase and TC activity. Specific biases in the high-resolution CFS are identified and their causes explored. The high-resolution CFS partially reproduces an observed weak tendency for TC activity to propagate eastward during and following the high-activity MJO phases. The operational (T126) CFSv2 shows useful skill (correlation >0.5) in predicting the MJO phase and amplitude out to ~3 weeks. A systematic error of slightly too slow MJO propagation is detected in the operational CFSv2, which still shows usable skill (correlation >0.3) in predicting weekly variations in TC activity out to 10?14 days. A conclusion is that prediction of intraseasonal variations of TC activity by CFSv2 is already possible and implemented in real-time predictions. An advantage of the higher resolution in the T382 version is unable to be confirmed.
    • Download: (2.432Mb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in Response to the MJO in NOAA’s CFS Model

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4230751
    Collections
    • Monthly Weather Review

    Show full item record

    contributor authorBarnston, Anthony G.
    contributor authorVigaud, Nicolas
    contributor authorLong, Lindsey N.
    contributor authorTippett, Michael K.
    contributor authorSchemm, Jae-Kyung E.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:33:06Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:33:06Z
    date copyright2015/12/01
    date issued2015
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-87117.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4230751
    description abstracthe Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) is known to exert some control on the variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity within a hurricane season. To explore the possibility of better TC predictions based on improved MJO forecasts, retrospective hindcast data on MJO and on TC activity are examined both in the current operational version of the CFSv2 model (T126 horizontal resolution) and a high-resolution (T382) experimental version of CFS. Goals are to determine how well each CFS version reproduces reality in 1) predicting MJO and 2) reproducing observed relationships between MJO phase and TC activity. For the operational CFSv2, skill of forecasts of TC activity is evaluated directly.Both CFS versions reproduce MJO behavior realistically and also roughly approximate observed relationships between MJO phase and TC activity. Specific biases in the high-resolution CFS are identified and their causes explored. The high-resolution CFS partially reproduces an observed weak tendency for TC activity to propagate eastward during and following the high-activity MJO phases. The operational (T126) CFSv2 shows useful skill (correlation >0.5) in predicting the MJO phase and amplitude out to ~3 weeks. A systematic error of slightly too slow MJO propagation is detected in the operational CFSv2, which still shows usable skill (correlation >0.3) in predicting weekly variations in TC activity out to 10?14 days. A conclusion is that prediction of intraseasonal variations of TC activity by CFSv2 is already possible and implemented in real-time predictions. An advantage of the higher resolution in the T382 version is unable to be confirmed.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAtlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in Response to the MJO in NOAA’s CFS Model
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume143
    journal issue12
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/MWR-D-15-0127.1
    journal fristpage4905
    journal lastpage4927
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2015:;volume( 143 ):;issue: 012
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian