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    Beyond Weather Time-Scale Prediction for Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan in a Global Climate Model

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2014:;volume( 143 ):;issue: 002::page 524
    Author:
    Xiang, Baoqiang
    ,
    Lin, Shian-Jiann
    ,
    Zhao, Ming
    ,
    Zhang, Shaoqing
    ,
    Vecchi, Gabriel
    ,
    Li, Tim
    ,
    Jiang, Xianan
    ,
    Harris, Lucas
    ,
    Chen, Jan-Huey
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00227.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: hile tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The ?beyond weather time scale? predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model?s skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy?s U.S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan?s landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potential of using the GFDL coupled model for extended-range predictions of TCs.
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      Beyond Weather Time-Scale Prediction for Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan in a Global Climate Model

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4230563
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    contributor authorXiang, Baoqiang
    contributor authorLin, Shian-Jiann
    contributor authorZhao, Ming
    contributor authorZhang, Shaoqing
    contributor authorVecchi, Gabriel
    contributor authorLi, Tim
    contributor authorJiang, Xianan
    contributor authorHarris, Lucas
    contributor authorChen, Jan-Huey
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:32:26Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:32:26Z
    date copyright2015/02/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-86949.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4230563
    description abstracthile tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The ?beyond weather time scale? predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model?s skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy?s U.S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan?s landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potential of using the GFDL coupled model for extended-range predictions of TCs.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleBeyond Weather Time-Scale Prediction for Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan in a Global Climate Model
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume143
    journal issue2
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/MWR-D-14-00227.1
    journal fristpage524
    journal lastpage535
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2014:;volume( 143 ):;issue: 002
    contenttypeFulltext
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