Beyond Weather Time-Scale Prediction for Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan in a Global Climate ModelSource: Monthly Weather Review:;2014:;volume( 143 ):;issue: 002::page 524Author:Xiang, Baoqiang
,
Lin, Shian-Jiann
,
Zhao, Ming
,
Zhang, Shaoqing
,
Vecchi, Gabriel
,
Li, Tim
,
Jiang, Xianan
,
Harris, Lucas
,
Chen, Jan-Huey
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00227.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: hile tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The ?beyond weather time scale? predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model?s skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy?s U.S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan?s landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potential of using the GFDL coupled model for extended-range predictions of TCs.
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contributor author | Xiang, Baoqiang | |
contributor author | Lin, Shian-Jiann | |
contributor author | Zhao, Ming | |
contributor author | Zhang, Shaoqing | |
contributor author | Vecchi, Gabriel | |
contributor author | Li, Tim | |
contributor author | Jiang, Xianan | |
contributor author | Harris, Lucas | |
contributor author | Chen, Jan-Huey | |
date accessioned | 2017-06-09T17:32:26Z | |
date available | 2017-06-09T17:32:26Z | |
date copyright | 2015/02/01 | |
date issued | 2014 | |
identifier issn | 0027-0644 | |
identifier other | ams-86949.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4230563 | |
description abstract | hile tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The ?beyond weather time scale? predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model?s skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy?s U.S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan?s landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potential of using the GFDL coupled model for extended-range predictions of TCs. | |
publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
title | Beyond Weather Time-Scale Prediction for Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan in a Global Climate Model | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 143 | |
journal issue | 2 | |
journal title | Monthly Weather Review | |
identifier doi | 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00227.1 | |
journal fristpage | 524 | |
journal lastpage | 535 | |
tree | Monthly Weather Review:;2014:;volume( 143 ):;issue: 002 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |