Generation of a Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in an NWP Model Using a Stochastic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization

Abstract

any operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems now extend into the stratosphere and are beginning to be used to generate forecasts beyond conventional 5?10-day periods out to seasonal time scales. Past observational and modeling studies have shown that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in equatorial stratospheric winds can play an important role in stratosphere?troposphere dynamical coupling over these longer time scales. Consequently, stratosphere-resolving NWP models used to generate seasonal forecasts should contain the necessary physics to generate and maintain the QBO. This study describes several key modifications that were necessary to produce a QBO in a high-altitude NWP model, which include an increase in model vertical resolution, implementation of a computationally efficient stochastic gravity wave drag parameterization, and reductions in the amount of horizontal and vertical diffusion in the stratosphere. Results from a 10-yr free-running model simulation with these modifications show that the westerly QBO phase produces lower temperatures and stronger westerly flow in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter polar stratosphere compared to the easterly QBO phase. Ensembles of 120-day simulations over the December?March period show that these modifications replace persistent easterly flow in the equatorial lower stratosphere with a more realistic transition from easterly to westerly flow. The resulting changes in planetary wave propagation produce a statistically significant response in the dynamics of the NH extratropical stratosphere consistent with the Holton?Tan relationship. The westerly shift in equatorial winds also produces a significant response in the NH extratropical troposphere, where the sea level pressure differences in winter resemble the positive phase of the northern annular mode.