Using Varied Microphysics to Account for Uncertainty in Warm-Season QPF in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble

Abstract

wo approaches for accounting for errors in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) due to uncertainty in the microphysics (MP) parameterization in a convection-allowing ensemble are examined. They include mixed MP (MMP) composed mostly of double-moment schemes and perturbing parameters within the Weather Research and Forecasting single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WSM6) MP scheme (PPMP). Thirty-five cases of real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasts produced by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms during the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2011 Spring Experiment were examined.The MMP ensemble had better fractions Brier scores (FBSs) for most lead times and thresholds, but the PPMP ensemble had better relative operating characteristic (ROC) scores for higher precipitation thresholds. The pooled ensemble formed by randomly drawing five members from the MMP and PPMP ensembles was no more skillful than the more accurate of the MMP and PPMP ensembles. Significant positive impact was found when the two were combined to form a larger ensemble.The QPF and the systematic behaviors of derived microphysical variables were also examined. The skill of the QPF among different members depended on the thresholds, verification metrics, and forecast lead times. The profiles of microphysics variables from the double-moment schemes contained more variation in the vertical than those from the single-moment members. Among the double-moment schemes, WDM6 produced the smallest raindrops and very large number concentrations. Among the PPMP members, the behaviors were found to be consistent with the prescribed intercept parameters. The perturbed intercept parameters used in the PPMP ensemble fell within the range of values retrieved from the double-moment schemes.