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    Global versus Local MJO Forecast Skill of the ECMWF Model during DYNAMO

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2014:;volume( 142 ):;issue: 006::page 2228
    Author:
    Ling, Jian
    ,
    Bauer, Peter
    ,
    Bechtold, Peter
    ,
    Beljaars, Anton
    ,
    Forbes, Richard
    ,
    Vitart, Frederic
    ,
    Ulate, Marcela
    ,
    Zhang, Chidong
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00292.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: his study introduces a concept of global versus local forecast skill of the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO). The global skill, measured by a commonly used MJO index [the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM)], evaluates the model?s capability of forecasting global patterns of the MJO, with an emphasis on the zonal wind fields. The local skill is measured by a method of tracking the eastward propagation of MJO precipitation. It provides quantitative information of the strength, propagation speed, and timing of MJO precipitation in a given region, such as the Indian Ocean. Both global and local MJO forecast skills are assessed for ECMWF forecasts of three MJO events during the 2011?12 Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Characteristics of error growth differ substantially between global and local MJO forecast skills, and between the three MJO quantities (strength, speed, and timing) of the local skill measure. They all vary considerably among the three MJO events. Deterioration in global forecast skill for these three events appears to be related to poor local skill in forecasting the propagation speed of MJO precipitation. The global and local MJO forecast skill measures are also applied to evaluate numerical experiments of observation denial, humidity relaxation, and forcing by daily perturbations in sea surface temperature (SST). The results suggest that forecast skill or errors of convective initiation of the three MJO events have global origins. Effects of local (Indian Ocean) factors, such as enhanced observations in the initial conditions, variability of tropospheric humidity and tropical SST, on forecasts of MJO initiation and propagation are limited.
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      Global versus Local MJO Forecast Skill of the ECMWF Model during DYNAMO

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4230325
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    contributor authorLing, Jian
    contributor authorBauer, Peter
    contributor authorBechtold, Peter
    contributor authorBeljaars, Anton
    contributor authorForbes, Richard
    contributor authorVitart, Frederic
    contributor authorUlate, Marcela
    contributor authorZhang, Chidong
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:31:35Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:31:35Z
    date copyright2014/06/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-86734.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4230325
    description abstracthis study introduces a concept of global versus local forecast skill of the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO). The global skill, measured by a commonly used MJO index [the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM)], evaluates the model?s capability of forecasting global patterns of the MJO, with an emphasis on the zonal wind fields. The local skill is measured by a method of tracking the eastward propagation of MJO precipitation. It provides quantitative information of the strength, propagation speed, and timing of MJO precipitation in a given region, such as the Indian Ocean. Both global and local MJO forecast skills are assessed for ECMWF forecasts of three MJO events during the 2011?12 Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Characteristics of error growth differ substantially between global and local MJO forecast skills, and between the three MJO quantities (strength, speed, and timing) of the local skill measure. They all vary considerably among the three MJO events. Deterioration in global forecast skill for these three events appears to be related to poor local skill in forecasting the propagation speed of MJO precipitation. The global and local MJO forecast skill measures are also applied to evaluate numerical experiments of observation denial, humidity relaxation, and forcing by daily perturbations in sea surface temperature (SST). The results suggest that forecast skill or errors of convective initiation of the three MJO events have global origins. Effects of local (Indian Ocean) factors, such as enhanced observations in the initial conditions, variability of tropospheric humidity and tropical SST, on forecasts of MJO initiation and propagation are limited.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleGlobal versus Local MJO Forecast Skill of the ECMWF Model during DYNAMO
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume142
    journal issue6
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/MWR-D-13-00292.1
    journal fristpage2228
    journal lastpage2247
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2014:;volume( 142 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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