Seasonal Forecasts of Australian Rainfall through Calibration and Bridging of Coupled GCM Outputs

Abstract

oupled general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly being used to forecast seasonal rainfall, but forecast skill is still low for many regions. GCM forecasts suffer from systematic biases, and forecast probabilities derived from ensemble members are often statistically unreliable. Hence, it is necessary to postprocess GCM forecasts to improve skill and statistical reliability. In this study, the authors compare three methods of statistically postprocessing GCM output?calibration, bridging, and a combination of calibration and bridging?as ways to treat these problems and make use of multiple GCM outputs to increase the skill of Australian seasonal rainfall forecasts. Three calibration models are established using ensemble mean rainfall from three variants of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) version M2.4 as predictors. Six bridging models are established using POAMA forecasts of seasonal climate indices as predictors. The calibration and bridging forecasts are merged through Bayesian model averaging. Forecast attributes including skill, sharpness, and reliability are assessed through a rigorous leave-three-years-out cross-validation procedure for forecasts of 1-month lead time. While there are overlaps in skill, there are regions and seasons where the calibration or bridging forecasts are uniquely skillful. The calibration forecasts are more skillful for January?March (JFM) to June?August (JJA). The bridging forecasts are more skillful for July?September (JAS) to December?February (DJF). Merging calibration and bridging forecasts retains, and in some seasons expands, the spatial coverage of positive skill achieved by the better of the calibration forecasts and bridging forecasts individually. The statistically postprocessed forecasts show improved reliability compared to the raw forecasts.