The Possible Reasons for the Misrepresented Long-Term Climate Trends in the Seasonal Forecasts of HFP2

Abstract

he climate trend in a dynamical seasonal forecasting system is examined using 33-yr multimodel ensemble (MME) forecasts from the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2). It is found that the warming trend of the seasonal forecast in March?May (MAM) over the Eurasian continent is in a good agreement with that in the observations. However, the seasonal forecast failed to reproduce the observed pronounced surface air temperature (SAT) trend in December?February (DJF). The possible reasons responsible for the different behaviors of the HFP2 models in MAM and DJF are investigated. Results show that the initial conditions used for the HFP2 forecast system in MAM have a warming trend over the Eurasian continent, which may come from high-frequency weather systems, whereas the initial conditions for the DJF seasonal forecast do not have such a trend. This trend in the initial condition contributes to the trend of the seasonal forecast in the first month. On the other hand, an examination of the lower boundary SST anomaly forcing shows that the SST trend in MAM has a negative SST anomaly along the central equatorial Pacific, which is favorable for a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation atmospheric response and a warming over the Eurasian continent. The long-term SST trend used for the seasonal forecast in DJF, however, has a negative trend in the tropical eastern Pacific, which is associated with a Pacific?North American pattern?like atmospheric response that has little contribution to a warming in the Eurasian continent.