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    Analog Downscaling of Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts in the Murray Darling Basin

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2012:;volume( 141 ):;issue: 003::page 1099
    Author:
    Charles, Andrew
    ,
    Timbal, Bertrand
    ,
    Fernandez, Elodie
    ,
    Hendon, Harry
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00098.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: easonal predictions based on coupled atmosphere?ocean general circulation models (GCMs) provide useful predictions of large-scale circulation but lack the conditioning on topography required for locally relevant prediction. In this study a statistical downscaling model based on meteorological analogs was applied to continental-scale GCM-based seasonal forecasts and high quality historical site observations to generate a set of downscaled precipitation hindcasts at 160 sites in the South Murray Darling Basin region of Australia. Large-scale fields from the Predictive Ocean?Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) 1.5b GCM-based seasonal prediction system are used for analog selection. Correlation analysis indicates modest levels of predictability in the target region for the selected predictor fields. A single best-match analog was found using model sea level pressure, meridional wind, and rainfall fields, with the procedure applied to 3-month-long reforecasts, initialized on the first day of each month from 1980 to 2006, for each model day of 10 ensemble members. Assessment of the total accumulated rainfall and number of rainy days in the 3-month reforecasts shows that the downscaling procedure corrects the local climate variability with no mean effect on predictive skill, resulting in a smaller magnitude error. The amount of total rainfall and number of rain days in the downscaled output is significantly improved over the direct GCM output as measured by the difference in median and tercile thresholds between station observations and downscaled rainfall. Confidence in the downscaled output is enhanced by strong consistency between the large-scale mean of the downscaled and direct GCM precipitation.
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      Analog Downscaling of Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts in the Murray Darling Basin

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    contributor authorCharles, Andrew
    contributor authorTimbal, Bertrand
    contributor authorFernandez, Elodie
    contributor authorHendon, Harry
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:30:15Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:30:15Z
    date copyright2013/03/01
    date issued2012
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-86381.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4229932
    description abstracteasonal predictions based on coupled atmosphere?ocean general circulation models (GCMs) provide useful predictions of large-scale circulation but lack the conditioning on topography required for locally relevant prediction. In this study a statistical downscaling model based on meteorological analogs was applied to continental-scale GCM-based seasonal forecasts and high quality historical site observations to generate a set of downscaled precipitation hindcasts at 160 sites in the South Murray Darling Basin region of Australia. Large-scale fields from the Predictive Ocean?Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) 1.5b GCM-based seasonal prediction system are used for analog selection. Correlation analysis indicates modest levels of predictability in the target region for the selected predictor fields. A single best-match analog was found using model sea level pressure, meridional wind, and rainfall fields, with the procedure applied to 3-month-long reforecasts, initialized on the first day of each month from 1980 to 2006, for each model day of 10 ensemble members. Assessment of the total accumulated rainfall and number of rainy days in the 3-month reforecasts shows that the downscaling procedure corrects the local climate variability with no mean effect on predictive skill, resulting in a smaller magnitude error. The amount of total rainfall and number of rain days in the downscaled output is significantly improved over the direct GCM output as measured by the difference in median and tercile thresholds between station observations and downscaled rainfall. Confidence in the downscaled output is enhanced by strong consistency between the large-scale mean of the downscaled and direct GCM precipitation.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAnalog Downscaling of Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts in the Murray Darling Basin
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume141
    journal issue3
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/MWR-D-12-00098.1
    journal fristpage1099
    journal lastpage1117
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2012:;volume( 141 ):;issue: 003
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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