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    Mismatching Perturbations at the Lateral Boundaries in Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasting: A Case Study

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2012:;volume( 141 ):;issue: 001::page 356
    Author:
    Caron, Jean-François
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00051.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: n experimental convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) has recently been developed at the Met Office where the analysis uncertainty is estimated by means of an ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF). In this paper, the author reports on a case study where mismatches between the analysis perturbations and the perturbations coming from the lateral boundaries lead to the generation of significant spurious perturbations in the ensemble forecasts of the surface pressure. To alleviate ensemble perturbation mismatches originating from the ensemble technique, he tests a so-called scale-selective ETKF where a revised transform matrix is applied only to the small-scale component of the high-resolution forecasts, while the large-scale component of the analysis perturbations is taken from the driving EPS. Results show that the new approach successfully removes the spurious perturbations in the surface pressure fields and also provides some benefits in the precipitation forecasts for the case studied. An examination of ensemble-derived forecast error covariances reveals that ensemble perturbation mismatches at the lateral boundaries tend to decrease the degree of balance between the mass field and the rotational wind field and to produce more compact horizontal and vertical correlations. Finally, the limitations of the scale-selective approach and future directions are discussed.
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      Mismatching Perturbations at the Lateral Boundaries in Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasting: A Case Study

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4229898
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    contributor authorCaron, Jean-François
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:30:09Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:30:09Z
    date copyright2013/01/01
    date issued2012
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-86350.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4229898
    description abstractn experimental convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) has recently been developed at the Met Office where the analysis uncertainty is estimated by means of an ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF). In this paper, the author reports on a case study where mismatches between the analysis perturbations and the perturbations coming from the lateral boundaries lead to the generation of significant spurious perturbations in the ensemble forecasts of the surface pressure. To alleviate ensemble perturbation mismatches originating from the ensemble technique, he tests a so-called scale-selective ETKF where a revised transform matrix is applied only to the small-scale component of the high-resolution forecasts, while the large-scale component of the analysis perturbations is taken from the driving EPS. Results show that the new approach successfully removes the spurious perturbations in the surface pressure fields and also provides some benefits in the precipitation forecasts for the case studied. An examination of ensemble-derived forecast error covariances reveals that ensemble perturbation mismatches at the lateral boundaries tend to decrease the degree of balance between the mass field and the rotational wind field and to produce more compact horizontal and vertical correlations. Finally, the limitations of the scale-selective approach and future directions are discussed.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleMismatching Perturbations at the Lateral Boundaries in Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasting: A Case Study
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume141
    journal issue1
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/MWR-D-12-00051.1
    journal fristpage356
    journal lastpage374
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2012:;volume( 141 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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