Smoothing Problems in a Bayesian Framework and Their Linear Gaussian Solutions

Abstract

moothers are increasingly used in geophysics. Several linear Gaussian algorithms exist, and the general picture may appear somewhat confusing. This paper attempts to stand back a little, in order to clarify this picture by providing a concise overview of what the different smoothers really solve, and how. The authors begin addressing this issue from a Bayesian viewpoint. The filtering problem consists in finding the probability of a system state at a given time, conditioned to some past and present observations (if the present observations are not included, it is a forecast problem). This formulation is unique: any different formulation is a smoothing problem. The two main formulations of smoothing are tackled here: the joint estimation problem (fixed lag or fixed interval), where the probability of a series of system states conditioned to observations is to be found, and the marginal estimation problem, which deals with the probability of only one system state, conditioned to past, present, and future observations. The various strategies to solve these problems in the Bayesian framework are introduced, along with their deriving linear Gaussian, Kalman filter-based algorithms. Their ensemble formulations are also presented. This results in a classification and a possible comparison of the most common smoothers used in geophysics. It should provide a good basis to help the reader find the most appropriate algorithm for his/her own smoothing problem.