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    A Comparison of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2006:;volume( 134 ):;issue: 009::page 2354
    Author:
    Majumdar, S. J.
    ,
    Aberson, S. D.
    ,
    Bishop, C. H.
    ,
    Buizza, R.
    ,
    Peng, M. S.
    ,
    Reynolds, C. A.
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR3193.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Airborne adaptive observations have been collected for more than two decades in the neighborhood of tropical cyclones, to attempt to improve short-range forecasts of cyclone track. However, only simple subjective strategies for adaptive observations have been used, and the utility of objective strategies to improve tropical cyclone forecasts remains unexplored. Two objective techniques that have been used extensively for midlatitude adaptive observing programs, and the current strategy based on the ensemble deep-layer mean (DLM) wind variance, are compared quantitatively using two metrics. The ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) uses ensembles from NCEP and the ECMWF. Total-energy singular vectors (TESVs) are computed by the ECMWF and the Naval Research Laboratory, using their respective global models. Comparisons of 78 guidance products for 2-day forecasts during the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season are made, on both continental and localized scales relevant to synoptic surveillance missions. The ECMWF and NRL TESV guidance identifies similar large-scale target regions in 90% of the cases, but are less similar to each other in the local tropical cyclone environment (56% of the cases) with a more stringent criterion for similarity. For major hurricanes, all techniques usually indicate targets close to the storm center. For weaker tropical cyclones, the TESV guidance selects similar targets to those from the ETKF (DLM wind variance) in only 30% (20%) of the cases. ETKF guidance using the ECMWF ensemble is more like that provided by the NCEP ensemble (and DLM wind variance) for major hurricanes than for weaker tropical cyclones. Minor differences in these results occur when a different metric based on the ranking of fixed storm-relative regions is used.
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      A Comparison of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4229220
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    • Monthly Weather Review

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    contributor authorMajumdar, S. J.
    contributor authorAberson, S. D.
    contributor authorBishop, C. H.
    contributor authorBuizza, R.
    contributor authorPeng, M. S.
    contributor authorReynolds, C. A.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:27:55Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:27:55Z
    date copyright2006/09/01
    date issued2006
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-85740.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4229220
    description abstractAirborne adaptive observations have been collected for more than two decades in the neighborhood of tropical cyclones, to attempt to improve short-range forecasts of cyclone track. However, only simple subjective strategies for adaptive observations have been used, and the utility of objective strategies to improve tropical cyclone forecasts remains unexplored. Two objective techniques that have been used extensively for midlatitude adaptive observing programs, and the current strategy based on the ensemble deep-layer mean (DLM) wind variance, are compared quantitatively using two metrics. The ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) uses ensembles from NCEP and the ECMWF. Total-energy singular vectors (TESVs) are computed by the ECMWF and the Naval Research Laboratory, using their respective global models. Comparisons of 78 guidance products for 2-day forecasts during the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season are made, on both continental and localized scales relevant to synoptic surveillance missions. The ECMWF and NRL TESV guidance identifies similar large-scale target regions in 90% of the cases, but are less similar to each other in the local tropical cyclone environment (56% of the cases) with a more stringent criterion for similarity. For major hurricanes, all techniques usually indicate targets close to the storm center. For weaker tropical cyclones, the TESV guidance selects similar targets to those from the ETKF (DLM wind variance) in only 30% (20%) of the cases. ETKF guidance using the ECMWF ensemble is more like that provided by the NCEP ensemble (and DLM wind variance) for major hurricanes than for weaker tropical cyclones. Minor differences in these results occur when a different metric based on the ranking of fixed storm-relative regions is used.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleA Comparison of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume134
    journal issue9
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/MWR3193.1
    journal fristpage2354
    journal lastpage2372
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2006:;volume( 134 ):;issue: 009
    contenttypeFulltext
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