An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico

Abstract

This paper documents the life cycle of Tropical Cyclone Marty, which developed in late September 2003 over the eastern Pacific Ocean and made landfall on the Baja California peninsula. Observations and best-track data indicate that the center of circulation moved across the southern peninsula and proceeded northward in the Gulf of California. A network of surface meteorological stations in the vicinity of the storm track detected strong winds. Satellite and radar imagery are used to analyze the structure of convective patterns, and rain gauges recorded total precipitation. A comparison of Marty?s features at landfall, with respect to Juliette (2001), indicates similar wind intensity but differences in forward motion and accumulated precipitation. Official, real-time forecasts issued by the U.S. National Hurricane Center prior to landfall are compared with the best track. This resulted in a westward bias of positions with decreasing errors during subsequent forecast cycles. Numerical simulations from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model were used to examine the evolution of the cyclonic circulation over the southern peninsula. The model was applied to a nested grid configuration with horizontal resolution as detailed as 3.3 km, with two (72- and 48-h) simulations. The output of the model provides a reasonable prediction of Marty?s motion during landfall and the circulation characteristics are consistent with the information derived from observations. Additionally, the model was used to estimate the role of the peninsular mountain ranges in a realistic simulation of the storm track over the Gulf of California.