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    A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2005:;volume( 133 ):;issue: 005::page 1076
    Author:
    Buizza, Roberto
    ,
    Houtekamer, P. L.
    ,
    Pellerin, Gerald
    ,
    Toth, Zoltan
    ,
    Zhu, Yuejian
    ,
    Wei, Mozheng
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR2905.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The present paper summarizes the methodologies used at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to simulate the effect of initial and model uncertainties in ensemble forecasting. The characteristics of the three systems are compared for a 3-month period between May and July 2002. The main conclusions of the study are the following: the performance of ensemble prediction systems strongly depends on the quality of the data assimilation system used to create the unperturbed (best) initial condition and the numerical model used to generate the forecasts; a successful ensemble prediction system should simulate the effect of both initial and model-related uncertainties on forecast errors; and for all three global systems, the spread of ensemble forecasts is insufficient to systematically capture reality, suggesting that none of them is able to simulate all sources of forecast uncertainty. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the three systems identified in this study can offer guidelines for the future development of ensemble forecasting techniques.
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      A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4228901
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    • Monthly Weather Review

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    contributor authorBuizza, Roberto
    contributor authorHoutekamer, P. L.
    contributor authorPellerin, Gerald
    contributor authorToth, Zoltan
    contributor authorZhu, Yuejian
    contributor authorWei, Mozheng
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:26:50Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:26:50Z
    date copyright2005/05/01
    date issued2005
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-85452.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4228901
    description abstractThe present paper summarizes the methodologies used at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to simulate the effect of initial and model uncertainties in ensemble forecasting. The characteristics of the three systems are compared for a 3-month period between May and July 2002. The main conclusions of the study are the following: the performance of ensemble prediction systems strongly depends on the quality of the data assimilation system used to create the unperturbed (best) initial condition and the numerical model used to generate the forecasts; a successful ensemble prediction system should simulate the effect of both initial and model-related uncertainties on forecast errors; and for all three global systems, the spread of ensemble forecasts is insufficient to systematically capture reality, suggesting that none of them is able to simulate all sources of forecast uncertainty. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the three systems identified in this study can offer guidelines for the future development of ensemble forecasting techniques.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleA Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume133
    journal issue5
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/MWR2905.1
    journal fristpage1076
    journal lastpage1097
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2005:;volume( 133 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
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