Diagnosing Rain Occurrences Using Passive Microwave Imagery: A Comparative Study on Probabilistic Graphical Models and “Black Box” Models

Abstract

ainfall is a fundamental process in the hydrologic cycle. This study investigated the cause?effect relationship in which precipitation at lower frequencies affects the amount of emitted radiation and at higher frequencies affects the amount of backscattered terrestrial radiation. Because the advantage of a probabilistic graphical model is its graphical representation, which allows easy causality interpretation using the arc directions, two Bayesian networks (BNs) were used, namely, a naïve Bayes classifier and a tree-augmented naïve Bayes model. To empirically evaluate and compare BN-based models, ?black box??based models, including nearest-neighbor searches and artificial neural network (ANN)-based multilayer perceptron and logistic regression, were used as benchmarks. For the two study regions?namely, the Tanshui River basin in northern Taiwan and Chianan Plain in southern Taiwan?rain occurrences during typhoon seasons were examined using passive microwave imagery recorded using the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder. The results show that although black box models exhibit excellent prediction ability, interpretation of their behavior is unsatisfactory. By contrast, probabilistic graphical models can explicitly reveal the causal relationship between brightness temperatures and nonrain/rain discrimination. For the Tanshui River basin, 19.35-, 22.23-, 37.0-, and 85.5-GHz vertically polarized brightness temperatures were found to diagnose rain occurrences. For the Chianan Plain, a more sensitive indicator of rain-scattering signals was obtained using 85-GHz measurements. The results demonstrate the potential use of BNs in identifying rain occurrences in regions with land features comprising various absorbing and scattering materials.