Utility of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Reforecast for Medium-Range Drought Prediction in India

Abstract

edium-range (~7 days) forecasts of agricultural and hydrologic droughts can help in decision-making in agriculture and water resources management. India has witnessed severe losses due to extreme weather events during recent years and medium-range forecasts of precipitation, air temperatures (maximum and minimum), and hydrologic variables (root-zone soil moisture and runoff) can be valuable. Here, the skill of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecast of precipitation and air temperatures is evaluated using retrospective data for the period of 1985?2010. It is found that the GEFS forecast shows better skill in the nonmonsoon season than in the monsoon season in India. Moreover, skill in temperature forecast is higher than that of precipitation in both the monsoon and nonmonsoon seasons. The lower skill in forecasting precipitation during the monsoon season can be attributed to representation of intraseasonal variability in precipitation from the GEFS. Among the selected regions, the northern, northeastern, and core monsoon region showed relatively lower skill in the GEFS forecast. Temperature and precipitation forecasts were corrected from the GEFS using quantile?quantile (Q?Q) mapping and linear scaling, respectively. Bias-corrected forecasts for precipitation and air temperatures were improved over the raw forecasts. The influence of corrected and raw forcings on medium-range soil moisture, drought, and runoff forecasts was evaluated. The results showed that because of high persistence, medium-range soil moisture forecasts are largely determined by the initial hydrologic conditions. Bias correction of precipitation and temperature forecasts does not lead to significant improvement in the medium-range hydrologic forecasting of soil moisture and drought. However, bias correcting raw GEFS forecasts can provide better predictions of the forecasts of precipitation and temperature anomalies over India.