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    Using Temporal Changes in Drought Indices to Generate Probabilistic Drought Intensification Forecasts

    Source: Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2014:;Volume( 016 ):;issue: 001::page 88
    Author:
    Otkin, Jason A.
    ,
    Anderson, Martha C.
    ,
    Hain, Christopher
    ,
    Svoboda, Mark
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0064.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: n this study, the potential utility of using rapid temporal changes in drought indices to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales is assessed. Standardized change anomalies were computed each week during the 2000?13 growing seasons for drought indices depicting anomalies in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and soil moisture. A rapid change index (RCI) that encapsulates the accumulated magnitude of rapid changes in the weekly anomalies was computed each week for each drought index, and then a simple statistical method was used to convert the RCI values into drought intensification probabilities depicting the likelihood that drought severity as analyzed by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) would worsen in subsequent weeks. Local and regional case study analyses revealed that elevated drought intensification probabilities often occur several weeks prior to changes in the USDM and in topsoil moisture and crop condition datasets compiled by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Statistical analyses showed that the RCI-derived probabilities are most reliable and skillful over the central and eastern United States in regions most susceptible to rapid drought development. Taken together, these results suggest that tools used to identify areas experiencing rapid changes in drought indices may be useful components of future drought early warning systems.
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      Using Temporal Changes in Drought Indices to Generate Probabilistic Drought Intensification Forecasts

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4225165
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    contributor authorOtkin, Jason A.
    contributor authorAnderson, Martha C.
    contributor authorHain, Christopher
    contributor authorSvoboda, Mark
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:15:56Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:15:56Z
    date copyright2015/02/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn1525-755X
    identifier otherams-82090.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4225165
    description abstractn this study, the potential utility of using rapid temporal changes in drought indices to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales is assessed. Standardized change anomalies were computed each week during the 2000?13 growing seasons for drought indices depicting anomalies in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and soil moisture. A rapid change index (RCI) that encapsulates the accumulated magnitude of rapid changes in the weekly anomalies was computed each week for each drought index, and then a simple statistical method was used to convert the RCI values into drought intensification probabilities depicting the likelihood that drought severity as analyzed by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) would worsen in subsequent weeks. Local and regional case study analyses revealed that elevated drought intensification probabilities often occur several weeks prior to changes in the USDM and in topsoil moisture and crop condition datasets compiled by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Statistical analyses showed that the RCI-derived probabilities are most reliable and skillful over the central and eastern United States in regions most susceptible to rapid drought development. Taken together, these results suggest that tools used to identify areas experiencing rapid changes in drought indices may be useful components of future drought early warning systems.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleUsing Temporal Changes in Drought Indices to Generate Probabilistic Drought Intensification Forecasts
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume16
    journal issue1
    journal titleJournal of Hydrometeorology
    identifier doi10.1175/JHM-D-14-0064.1
    journal fristpage88
    journal lastpage105
    treeJournal of Hydrometeorology:;2014:;Volume( 016 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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