YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Hydrometeorology
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Hydrometeorology
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    The Predictability of Rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa. Part I: Prediction of Seasonal Rainfall

    Source: Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2014:;Volume( 015 ):;issue: 003::page 1011
    Author:
    Nicholson, Sharon E.
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-13-062.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he predictability of each of the three rainy seasons affecting the Horn of Africa is examined using multiple linear regression and cross validation. In contrast to most other empirical forecast models, atmospheric dynamics are emphasized. Two geographical sectors are considered: the summer rainfall region with a single rainfall peak in the boreal summer and an equatorial rainfall region with rainy seasons in both the boreal spring and the boreal autumn. These two seasons are termed the ?long rains? and ?short rains,? respectively, in much of East Africa. Excellent predictability is noted 5 months in advance for both regions during the boreal autumn season and 2 months in advance for the summer season in the summer rainfall region. There is also excellent predictability for the short rains of the equatorial region 2 months in advance. Two notable findings are that atmospheric variables generally provide higher forecast skill than surface variables, such as sea surface temperatures and sea level pressure, and that ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole provide less forecast skill than atmospheric variables associated with them. As in other studies, the results show that the spring predictability barrier limits the lead time for the forecasting of spring and summer rainfall.
    • Download: (2.026Mb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      The Predictability of Rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa. Part I: Prediction of Seasonal Rainfall

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4225086
    Collections
    • Journal of Hydrometeorology

    Show full item record

    contributor authorNicholson, Sharon E.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:15:41Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:15:41Z
    date copyright2014/06/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn1525-755X
    identifier otherams-82018.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4225086
    description abstracthe predictability of each of the three rainy seasons affecting the Horn of Africa is examined using multiple linear regression and cross validation. In contrast to most other empirical forecast models, atmospheric dynamics are emphasized. Two geographical sectors are considered: the summer rainfall region with a single rainfall peak in the boreal summer and an equatorial rainfall region with rainy seasons in both the boreal spring and the boreal autumn. These two seasons are termed the ?long rains? and ?short rains,? respectively, in much of East Africa. Excellent predictability is noted 5 months in advance for both regions during the boreal autumn season and 2 months in advance for the summer season in the summer rainfall region. There is also excellent predictability for the short rains of the equatorial region 2 months in advance. Two notable findings are that atmospheric variables generally provide higher forecast skill than surface variables, such as sea surface temperatures and sea level pressure, and that ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole provide less forecast skill than atmospheric variables associated with them. As in other studies, the results show that the spring predictability barrier limits the lead time for the forecasting of spring and summer rainfall.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleThe Predictability of Rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa. Part I: Prediction of Seasonal Rainfall
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume15
    journal issue3
    journal titleJournal of Hydrometeorology
    identifier doi10.1175/JHM-D-13-062.1
    journal fristpage1011
    journal lastpage1027
    treeJournal of Hydrometeorology:;2014:;Volume( 015 ):;issue: 003
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian