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    Examining the Relationship between Drought Development and Rapid Changes in the Evaporative Stress Index

    Source: Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2013:;Volume( 015 ):;issue: 003::page 938
    Author:
    Otkin, Jason A.
    ,
    Anderson, Martha C.
    ,
    Hain, Christopher
    ,
    Svoboda, Mark
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-13-0110.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: n this study, the ability of a new drought metric based on thermal infrared remote sensing imagery to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought intensification is assessed. This new metric, called the rapid change index (RCI), is designed to highlight areas undergoing rapid changes in moisture stress as inferred from weekly changes in the evaporative stress index (ESI) generated using the Atmosphere?Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance model. Two case study analyses across the central United States revealed that the initial appearance of negative RCI values indicative of rapid increases in moisture stress preceded the introduction of severe-to-exceptional drought in the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) by more than 4 weeks. Using data from 2000 to 2012, the probability of USDM intensification of at least one, two, or three categories over different time periods was computed as a function of the RCI magnitude. Compared to baseline probabilities, the RCI-derived probabilities often indicate a much higher risk for drought development that increases greatly as the RCI becomes more negative. When the RCI is strongly negative, many areas are characterized by intensification probabilities that are several times higher than the baseline climatology. The highest probabilities encompass much of the central and eastern United States, with the greatest increase over climatology within regions most susceptible to rapid drought development. These results show that the RCI provides useful drought early warning capabilities that could be used to alert stakeholders of an increased risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales.
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      Examining the Relationship between Drought Development and Rapid Changes in the Evaporative Stress Index

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    contributor authorOtkin, Jason A.
    contributor authorAnderson, Martha C.
    contributor authorHain, Christopher
    contributor authorSvoboda, Mark
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:15:21Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:15:21Z
    date copyright2014/06/01
    date issued2013
    identifier issn1525-755X
    identifier otherams-81918.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4224974
    description abstractn this study, the ability of a new drought metric based on thermal infrared remote sensing imagery to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought intensification is assessed. This new metric, called the rapid change index (RCI), is designed to highlight areas undergoing rapid changes in moisture stress as inferred from weekly changes in the evaporative stress index (ESI) generated using the Atmosphere?Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance model. Two case study analyses across the central United States revealed that the initial appearance of negative RCI values indicative of rapid increases in moisture stress preceded the introduction of severe-to-exceptional drought in the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) by more than 4 weeks. Using data from 2000 to 2012, the probability of USDM intensification of at least one, two, or three categories over different time periods was computed as a function of the RCI magnitude. Compared to baseline probabilities, the RCI-derived probabilities often indicate a much higher risk for drought development that increases greatly as the RCI becomes more negative. When the RCI is strongly negative, many areas are characterized by intensification probabilities that are several times higher than the baseline climatology. The highest probabilities encompass much of the central and eastern United States, with the greatest increase over climatology within regions most susceptible to rapid drought development. These results show that the RCI provides useful drought early warning capabilities that could be used to alert stakeholders of an increased risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleExamining the Relationship between Drought Development and Rapid Changes in the Evaporative Stress Index
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume15
    journal issue3
    journal titleJournal of Hydrometeorology
    identifier doi10.1175/JHM-D-13-0110.1
    journal fristpage938
    journal lastpage956
    treeJournal of Hydrometeorology:;2013:;Volume( 015 ):;issue: 003
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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