Global Multimodel Analysis of Drought in Runoff for the Second Half of the Twentieth CenturySource: Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2013:;Volume( 014 ):;issue: 005::page 1535Author:van Huijgevoort, M. H. J.
,
Hazenberg, P.
,
van Lanen, H. A. J.
,
Teuling, A. J.
,
Clark, D. B.
,
Folwell, S.
,
Gosling, S. N.
,
Hanasaki, N.
,
Heinke, J.
,
Koirala, S.
,
Stacke, T.
,
Voss, F.
,
Sheffield, J.
,
Uijlenhoet, R.
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-12-0186.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: uring the past decades large-scale models have been developed to simulate global and continental terrestrial water cycles. It is an open question whether these models are suitable to capture hydrological drought, in terms of runoff, on a global scale. A multimodel ensemble analysis was carried out to evaluate if 10 such large-scale models agree on major drought events during the second half of the twentieth century. Time series of monthly precipitation, monthly total runoff from 10 global hydrological models, and their ensemble median have been used to identify drought. Temporal development of area in drought for various regions across the globe was investigated. Model spread was largest in regions with low runoff and smallest in regions with high runoff. In vast regions, correlation between runoff drought derived from the models and meteorological drought was found to be low. This indicated that models add information to the signal derived from precipitation and that runoff drought cannot directly be determined from precipitation data alone in global drought analyses with a constant aggregation period. However, duration and spatial extent of major drought events differed between models. Some models showed a fast runoff response to rainfall, which led to deviations from reported drought events in slowly responding hydrological systems. By using an ensemble of models, this fast runoff response was partly overcome and delay in drought propagating from meteorological drought to drought in runoff was included. Finally, an ensemble of models also allows for consideration of uncertainty associated with individual model structures.
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contributor author | van Huijgevoort, M. H. J. | |
contributor author | Hazenberg, P. | |
contributor author | van Lanen, H. A. J. | |
contributor author | Teuling, A. J. | |
contributor author | Clark, D. B. | |
contributor author | Folwell, S. | |
contributor author | Gosling, S. N. | |
contributor author | Hanasaki, N. | |
contributor author | Heinke, J. | |
contributor author | Koirala, S. | |
contributor author | Stacke, T. | |
contributor author | Voss, F. | |
contributor author | Sheffield, J. | |
contributor author | Uijlenhoet, R. | |
date accessioned | 2017-06-09T17:15:03Z | |
date available | 2017-06-09T17:15:03Z | |
date copyright | 2013/10/01 | |
date issued | 2013 | |
identifier issn | 1525-755X | |
identifier other | ams-81842.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4224890 | |
description abstract | uring the past decades large-scale models have been developed to simulate global and continental terrestrial water cycles. It is an open question whether these models are suitable to capture hydrological drought, in terms of runoff, on a global scale. A multimodel ensemble analysis was carried out to evaluate if 10 such large-scale models agree on major drought events during the second half of the twentieth century. Time series of monthly precipitation, monthly total runoff from 10 global hydrological models, and their ensemble median have been used to identify drought. Temporal development of area in drought for various regions across the globe was investigated. Model spread was largest in regions with low runoff and smallest in regions with high runoff. In vast regions, correlation between runoff drought derived from the models and meteorological drought was found to be low. This indicated that models add information to the signal derived from precipitation and that runoff drought cannot directly be determined from precipitation data alone in global drought analyses with a constant aggregation period. However, duration and spatial extent of major drought events differed between models. Some models showed a fast runoff response to rainfall, which led to deviations from reported drought events in slowly responding hydrological systems. By using an ensemble of models, this fast runoff response was partly overcome and delay in drought propagating from meteorological drought to drought in runoff was included. Finally, an ensemble of models also allows for consideration of uncertainty associated with individual model structures. | |
publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
title | Global Multimodel Analysis of Drought in Runoff for the Second Half of the Twentieth Century | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 14 | |
journal issue | 5 | |
journal title | Journal of Hydrometeorology | |
identifier doi | 10.1175/JHM-D-12-0186.1 | |
journal fristpage | 1535 | |
journal lastpage | 1552 | |
tree | Journal of Hydrometeorology:;2013:;Volume( 014 ):;issue: 005 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |