Extending the Predictability of Hydrometeorological Flood Events Using Radar Rainfall Nowcasting

Abstract

The predictability of hydrometeorological flood events is investigated through the combined use of radar nowcasting and distributed hydrologic modeling. Nowcasting of radar-derived rainfall fields can extend the lead time for issuing flood and flash flood forecasts based on a physically based hydrologic model that explicitly accounts for spatial variations in topography, surface characteristics, and meteorological forcing. Through comparisons to discharge observations at multiple gauges (at the basin outlet and interior points), flood predictability is assessed as a function of forecast lead time, catchment scale, and rainfall spatial variability in a simulated real-time operation. The forecast experiments are carried out at temporal and spatial scales relevant for operational hydrologic forecasting. Two modes for temporal coupling of the radar nowcasting and distributed hydrologic models (interpolation and extended-lead forecasting) are proposed and evaluated for flood events within a set of nested basins in Oklahoma. Comparisons of the radar-based forecasts to persistence show the advantages of utilizing radar nowcasting for predicting near-future rainfall during flood event evolution.