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    Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2016:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 002::page 553
    Author:
    Kirchmeier-Young, Megan C.
    ,
    Zwiers, Francis W.
    ,
    Gillett, Nathan P.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: rctic sea ice extent (SIE) has decreased over recent decades, with record-setting minimum events in 2007 and again in 2012. A question of interest across many disciplines concerns the extent to which such extreme events can be attributed to anthropogenic influences. First, a detection and attribution analysis is performed for trends in SIE anomalies over the observed period. The main objective of this study is an event attribution analysis for extreme minimum events in Arctic SIE. Although focus is placed on the 2012 event, the results are generalized to extreme events of other magnitudes, including both past and potential future extremes. Several ensembles of model responses are used, including two single-model large ensembles. Using several different metrics to define the events in question, it is shown that an extreme SIE minimum of the magnitude seen in 2012 is consistent with a scenario including anthropogenic influence and is extremely unlikely in a scenario excluding anthropogenic influence. Hence, the 2012 Arctic sea ice minimum provides a counterexample to the often-quoted idea that individual extreme events cannot be attributed to human influence.
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      Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent

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    contributor authorKirchmeier-Young, Megan C.
    contributor authorZwiers, Francis W.
    contributor authorGillett, Nathan P.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:13:22Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:13:22Z
    date copyright2017/01/01
    date issued2016
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-81326.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4224317
    description abstractrctic sea ice extent (SIE) has decreased over recent decades, with record-setting minimum events in 2007 and again in 2012. A question of interest across many disciplines concerns the extent to which such extreme events can be attributed to anthropogenic influences. First, a detection and attribution analysis is performed for trends in SIE anomalies over the observed period. The main objective of this study is an event attribution analysis for extreme minimum events in Arctic SIE. Although focus is placed on the 2012 event, the results are generalized to extreme events of other magnitudes, including both past and potential future extremes. Several ensembles of model responses are used, including two single-model large ensembles. Using several different metrics to define the events in question, it is shown that an extreme SIE minimum of the magnitude seen in 2012 is consistent with a scenario including anthropogenic influence and is extremely unlikely in a scenario excluding anthropogenic influence. Hence, the 2012 Arctic sea ice minimum provides a counterexample to the often-quoted idea that individual extreme events cannot be attributed to human influence.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAttribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume30
    journal issue2
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1
    journal fristpage553
    journal lastpage571
    treeJournal of Climate:;2016:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 002
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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